NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	106		Excitement	8.9 [104]		MVP	Toni Kukoc (ATL): +22.9%
Atlanta Hawks	108		Comeback	2.0 [153]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -58.4%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rick Fox	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,0.17,0.17,0.23	0.04	0.20	0.01	9	94%	0.39	6	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	19	54%	-0.05	1	-0.02	12	75%	-0.01
Horace Grant	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.00	-0.10	0.00	9	55%	-0.04	1	-0.07	4	50%	-0.05
Brian Shaw	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.58	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.49,-0.58	-0.14	-0.45	-0.00	22	51%	-0.35	7	-0.24	9	78%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.23	0.23	0.06	0.16	-0.01	18	63%	0.31	3	-0.08	5	80%	-0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.04	0.02	25	64%	0.21	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.03	-0.05	8	65%	0.12	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.01	6	83%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.11	-0.00	8	50%	0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	7	44%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	9	25%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	1.8	27.2	16.3	25.7	2.6	40.0	140.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +65.0%

LAL -9.7%

LAL -35.3%

ATL +32.8%

LAL -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	ATL	NBA	LAL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.1	15.5	112.8	113.7	100.9
season	15.6	15.4		106.8	96.0
opponent	15.1	15.2		101.6	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.3	15.5	14.6	17.2	15.4
ATL	17.0	14.5	13.6	15.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Madsen	9	11	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-3	4	19.7	14.9	4.73	15.0	15.1	-0.10
Robert Horry	38	38	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-1	0	16.0	15.0	1.02	15.2	15.0	0.25
Tyronn Lue	22	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-1	0	17.3	14.8	2.51	16.0	14.8	1.24
Brian Shaw	23	24	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	0	-2	15.9	15.2	0.69	15.2	15.1	0.11
Kobe Bryant	87	88	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.46	0	-2	2	15.6	12.3	3.36	14.9	17.6	-2.69
Horace Grant	76	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.41	-2	0	-2	15.4	15.3	0.14	14.9	15.9	-0.99
Rick Fox	56	57	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	0	-2	14.5	16.7	-2.25	15.4	14.7	0.67
Shaquille O'Neal	85	84	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	1	-4	14.9	19.7	-4.73	15.1	15.0	0.10

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lorenzen Wright	57	54	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	-2	6	15.7	14.1	1.63	16.1	14.5	1.60
Alan Henderson	61	61	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.47	0	2	-2	15.0	15.1	-0.10	15.3	15.6	-0.37
Brevin Knight	70	71	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.46	0	2	-2	14.9	15.7	-0.81	15.1	16.3	-1.21
Toni Kukoc	91	89	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.49	-1	3	-4	15.3	11.2	4.00	15.2	19.0	-3.81
DerMarr Johnson	44	42	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.19	6	-4	10	14.3	15.7	-1.38	16.2	14.7	1.48
Jason Terry	79	80	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.19	-2	4	-6	15.3	13.9	1.38	15.4	15.2	0.21
Nazr Mohammed	34	36	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.12	-2	4	-6	14.6	15.4	-0.82	14.2	16.1	-1.90
Hanno Mottola	34	33	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.03	2	0	2	15.1	15.0	0.10	15.6	15.3	0.37
Cal Bowdler	3	3	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.05	0	2	-2	10.7	15.2	-4.56	22.3	15.2	7.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.6,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.72,0.68,0.47,0.6,0.82,0.81,0.64,0.33,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 87, NJN 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.48,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.83,0.85,0.71,0.57,0.96,1	91.1%
CLE 93, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.77,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.83,1	90.8%
MIN 89, LAL 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.83,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.57,0.96,1	90.8%