NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	83		Excitement	5.5 [693]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +8.3%
New York Knicks	86		Comeback	6.7 [343]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -18.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	7	79%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	13	69%	0.13	5	-0.13	6	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	8	61%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
A.C. Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Anthony Mason	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	-0.05	-0.06	13	38%	-0.07	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.06
Anthony Carter	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	9	25%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.21,-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	19	42%	-0.04	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.04

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	7	57%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	11	58%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Allan Houston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	16	38%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	14	50%	0.06	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02	-0.02	-0.11	0.03	-0.06	18	42%	0.05	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	9	28%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.6	28.2	18.6	25.1	2.4	40.7	141.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +29.3%

NYK +0.2%

NYK +12.1%

NYK +7.8%

NYK +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	17.3	16.5	15.5	96.5	102.4	100.9
season	16.3	16.4		98.4	99.2
opponent	16.1	16.1		96.6	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.1	21.6	20.6	14.0	17.3
NYK	17.4	14.4	15.3	18.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.C. Green	24	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-5	7	19.7	16.4	3.25	17.6	16.1	1.55
Dan Majerle	65	64	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.24	0	-3	3	17.9	15.4	2.51	16.1	18.1	-2.04
Tim Hardaway	73	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.37	3	-6	9	16.7	20.6	-3.88	16.2	18.4	-2.26
Anthony Mason	75	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-2	1	16.9	20.3	-3.38	16.6	16.0	0.64
Bruce Bowen	84	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.46	0	-3	3	17.2	24.5	-7.35	16.5	18.3	-1.85
Anthony Carter	36	37	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	9	-21	17.8	17.0	0.83	18.2	15.2	3.03
Brian Grant	73	70	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.36	-7	4	-11	17.0	19.2	-2.15	16.1	19.0	-2.94

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	61	64	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.36	3	0	3	15.8	18.5	-2.72	16.5	19.6	-3.04
Allan Houston	68	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.23	6	-3	9	15.6	20.6	-5.04	17.7	15.9	1.78
Kurt Thomas	66	67	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	4	-5	16.9	15.2	1.69	16.7	19.6	-2.89
Glen Rice	43	43	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.01	11	-8	19	17.1	16.0	1.17	18.5	16.2	2.33
Charlie Ward	36	37	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	-4	11	15.0	17.7	-2.71	17.9	16.9	0.99
Latrell Sprewell	72	75	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.54	-10	13	-23	16.5	16.6	-0.04	17.0	19.5	-2.55
Mark Jackson	48	49	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.34	-4	7	-11	17.7	15.0	2.71	16.9	17.9	-0.99
Othella Harrington	26	25	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	0	3	19.0	15.5	3.50	19.1	16.6	2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.84,0.86,0.97,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 96, PHX 104	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.71,0.85,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.91,1	93.2%
LAL 100, MIL 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.23,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.99,1	93.1%
MIN 99, NOP 114	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.32,0.24,0.36,0.25,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.37,0.45,0.55,0.43,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	92.8%