NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	101		Excitement	5.9 [614]		MVP	Robert Horry (LAL): +20.8%
San Antonio Spurs	99		Comeback	1.2 [303]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -14.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.09	0.03	4	130%	0.21	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mike Penberthy	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	5	77%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Rick Fox	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	11	61%	0.12	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
Isaiah Rider	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	13	62%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	75%	0.05	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Greg Foster	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	61%	0.05	5	-0.10	4	100%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.02	0.00	17	56%	0.09	6	-0.16	5	80%	0.01
Devean George	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.15	-0.01	0.13	8	90%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Derek Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	19	51%	-0.00	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.02
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	-0.04	9	50%	0.07	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	12	46%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.09
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	22	43%	-0.08	2	-0.07	7	29%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	3.4	28.6	20.6	24.0	2.5	35.5	139.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +36.4%

LAL +26.8%

LAL +12.5%

SAS -28.3%

LAL +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.3	15.2	15.5	111.0	107.6	100.9
season	15.6	15.9		106.8	103.4
opponent	15.5	15.2		96.5	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.7	18.1	18.0	15.1	16.3
SAS	14.1	17.0	16.3	13.7	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	71	74	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.13	12	-10	22	16.6	15.1	1.48	15.9	12.1	3.88
Brian Shaw	74	76	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	1	0	16.0	17.5	-1.43	14.9	16.4	-1.53
Mike Penberthy	54	55	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.41	2	0	2	15.4	17.7	-2.31	15.5	14.7	0.83
Robert Horry	40	40	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.41	1	1	0	15.7	16.8	-1.13	15.6	14.8	0.84
Rick Fox	76	76	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	0	2	16.1	17.6	-1.55	14.7	17.2	-2.44
Mark Madsen	8	9	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.15	3	-1	4	18.5	16.1	2.40	16.7	15.0	1.65
Devean George	15	16	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	2	-2	17.6	16.1	1.55	17.2	14.7	2.44
Horace Grant	55	55	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.15	-3	5	-8	15.7	17.3	-1.61	14.3	16.5	-2.15
Isaiah Rider	54	53	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	1	0	17.6	14.4	3.21	15.2	15.1	0.08
Tyronn Lue	1	0	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	2	-2	3.0	16.5	-13.46	0.0	15.2	-15.17
Greg Foster	7	6	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.06	-9	11	-20	21.0	15.9	5.08	8.3	15.7	-7.32

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Ferry	24	23	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.24	8	-10	18	12.6	16.1	-3.50	13.0	17.4	-4.48
Sean Elliott	16	16	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-3	4	15.6	15.1	0.55	18.3	15.9	2.43
Samaki Walker	32	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.31	6	-8	14	15.8	14.8	0.98	15.7	16.6	-0.96
Terry Porter	58	60	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.32	6	-8	14	13.6	17.9	-4.25	16.3	16.4	-0.07
Derek Anderson	82	79	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.42	6	-8	14	15.2	14.8	0.42	16.5	14.9	1.60
Avery Johnson	34	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.11	-8	6	-14	17.9	13.6	4.25	15.9	16.5	-0.57
David Robinson	62	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.07	-12	10	-22	15.5	14.4	1.10	16.6	15.7	0.96
Tim Duncan	88	87	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.48	-1	-1	0	14.7	25.0	-10.27	16.4	14.0	2.41
Antonio Daniels	64	66	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.10	-16	14	-30	15.9	13.5	2.46	16.8	15.0	1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.29,0.17,0.07,0.01,0.02,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 121, SAC 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.11,0.13,0.17,0,0	93.4%
DAL 107, CHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.2,0.23,0.16,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.02,0,0	93.4%
LAC 93, SAS 84	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.27,0.41,0.36,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.29,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.15,0,0.08,0	93.4%