NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	111		Excitement	7.7 [281]		MVP	Keith Van Horn (NJN): +23.5%
New Jersey Nets	113		Comeback	1.2 [609]		LVP	Vince Carter (TOR): -19.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	10	73%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	14	57%	0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Antonio Davis	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	4	69%	0.10	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.05
Dell Curry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	58%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	57%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Keon Clark	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	54%	0.03	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Charles Oakley	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	11	27%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,-0.19	0.03	-0.22	0.00	32	51%	-0.19	0	0.00	12	58%	-0.24

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.24	0.24	0.16	0.08	0.00	16	78%	0.29	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.01	-0.01	8	89%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.00	19	67%	0.20	3	-0.08	14	79%	0.04
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	6	79%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,0.06,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	16	44%	0.13	3	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jamie Feick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	7	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	1.8	25.4	15.4	27.9	1.8	37.3	131.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +57.4%

TOR -3.2%

TOR -3.4%

TOR -8.4%

NJN +7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NJN	NBA	TOR	NJN	NBA
this game	14.9	14.7	15.5	113.3	116.5	100.9
season	15.8	15.5		103.7	97.8
opponent	15.1	15.4		103.0	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.8	14.5	18.0	11.0	14.9
NJN	14.5	13.2	14.7	16.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	58	55	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.20	4	-6	10	15.9	13.4	2.54	15.0	14.2	0.79
Antonio Davis	75	76	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.34	6	-8	14	14.6	15.8	-1.18	14.6	14.9	-0.25
Alvin Williams	48	47	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.41	3	-5	8	12.6	17.0	-4.41	14.8	14.6	0.21
Vince Carter	90	89	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.44	3	-5	8	14.9	15.1	-0.27	15.0	10.9	4.13
Keon Clark	48	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.42	2	-4	6	13.1	16.6	-3.48	15.3	14.1	1.21
Dell Curry	31	32	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.05	-11	9	-20	14.6	15.0	-0.39	13.4	15.3	-1.87
Charles Oakley	72	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	9	-20	16.5	10.3	6.22	14.3	15.6	-1.29
Mark Jackson	68	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.25	-6	4	-10	15.5	13.4	2.18	14.5	15.1	-0.68

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	70	71	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-3	8	14.6	14.7	-0.11	14.8	15.1	-0.27
Stephon Marbury	89	91	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.45	0	2	-2	14.7	13.7	0.99	15.0	13.0	2.02
Lucious Harris	75	75	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.31	2	0	2	14.8	14.3	0.50	15.0	14.4	0.58
Aaron Williams	58	59	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.41	-2	4	-6	14.9	14.2	0.72	13.7	16.7	-2.97
Keith Van Horn	72	73	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.31	-2	4	-6	14.7	14.7	-0.03	15.2	14.0	1.12
Jamie Feick	25	25	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	-2	6	14.7	14.7	0.03	14.0	15.2	-1.12
Evan Eschmeyer	39	39	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	-2	6	14.2	14.9	-0.72	16.7	13.7	2.97
Stephen Jackson	25	24	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	1	0	13.7	15.0	-1.32	14.5	15.0	-0.56
Johnny Newman	32	33	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.12	-2	4	-6	15.0	14.5	0.51	14.6	15.0	-0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.63,0.77,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 97, IND 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.85,0.72,0.77,0.91,1	93.6%
DEN 92, NOH 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.63,0.69,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.65,0.79,0.74,0.85,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.86,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.85,0.72,0.76,0.84,1	93.1%
DEN 86, UTA 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.85,1,1	92.8%