NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	92		Excitement	6.2 [542]		MVP	Dell Curry (TOR): +12.4%
Toronto Raptors	99		Comeback	6.3 [363]		LVP	George McCloud (DEN): -12.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0,0.1,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	23	52%	0.13	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Goldwire	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.01	8	81%	0.09	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.05
Voshon Lenard	-0.01	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	9	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	18	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Willis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	9	42%	-0.03	3	-0.09	6	50%	-0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.01	8	78%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	0.01	9	75%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.00	4	75%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.04	0.01	20	62%	0.13	2	-0.03	10	90%	0.07
Antonio Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.01	13	62%	0.09	0	0.00	8	87%	0.05
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	3.3	26.6	19.7	25.2	3.5	33.3	135.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +1.9%

TOR +32.1%

TOR +6.5%

TOR +8.0%

TOR +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	TOR	NBA	DEN	TOR	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.5	100.0	107.6	100.9
season	15.2	15.8		101.4	103.7
opponent	15.4	15.2		101.6	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.3	15.4	15.3	18.7	15.5
TOR	15.5	14.6	18.3	14.9	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	56	55	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.01	6	-13	19	15.0	16.4	-1.39	16.2	15.1	1.09
Anthony Goldwire	9	9	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-8	9	17.4	15.3	2.11	17.4	15.6	1.87
Ryan Bowen	7	6	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	-5	3	13.9	15.7	-1.83	14.2	15.9	-1.71
Raef LaFrentz	71	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-8	9	15.1	17.1	-2.07	16.2	14.4	1.79
Antonio McDyess	74	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.42	5	-12	17	15.3	16.6	-1.26	16.1	14.2	1.90
Kevin Willis	38	36	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.07	-20	13	-33	17.2	14.4	2.80	14.7	16.4	-1.75
James Posey	65	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.41	-4	-3	-1	15.4	15.9	-0.54	16.2	14.6	1.60
Nick Van Exel	83	83	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.30	-8	1	-9	15.3	17.4	-2.11	15.6	17.4	-1.87
George McCloud	57	58	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.22	-14	7	-21	16.3	14.3	1.94	14.7	17.5	-2.81

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dell Curry	37	37	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.19	15	-8	23	15.1	16.2	-1.09	18.2	13.7	4.52
Alvin Williams	61	60	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.19	14	-7	21	14.7	17.9	-3.28	16.1	14.5	1.65
Antonio Davis	71	71	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.38	6	1	5	16.3	14.0	2.22	15.4	16.1	-0.71
Keon Clark	55	54	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.22	11	-4	15	14.4	17.8	-3.43	16.6	14.1	2.50
Vince Carter	77	76	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.39	4	3	1	15.8	15.4	0.43	15.1	17.7	-2.60
Tracy Murray	14	14	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	5	-3	15.7	15.8	-0.05	16.4	15.4	0.96
Mark Jackson	53	54	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	12	-17	16.3	15.1	1.19	14.3	17.4	-3.11
Charles Oakley	58	59	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	12	-17	16.4	14.6	1.86	14.8	16.9	-2.08
Morris Peterson	34	35	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.08	-7	14	-21	17.5	14.7	2.81	14.3	16.3	-1.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.21,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.14,0.2,0.24,0.14,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.53,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.61,0.72,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 73, NYK 77	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.79,0.65,0.78,0.61,0.54,0.83,0.9,1	91.4%
GSW 115, SEA 117	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.13,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.18,0.25,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.81,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.9,1,1	91.3%
HOU 94, NOK 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.56,0.56,0.4,0.58,0.57,0.75,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.83,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.97,1	91.2%