NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	91		Excitement	9.1 [94]		MVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): +15.2%
Boston Celtics	94		Comeback	4.8 [200]		LVP	Scott Williams (MIL): -21.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	16	58%	0.14	3	-0.15	4	50%	-0.03
Ray Allen	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.01	-0.08	0.07	-0.00	17	49%	0.10	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.07
Mark Pope	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.01	18	49%	0.03	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	9	32%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	2	58%	-0.09	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.16
Sam Cassell	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17	-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	10	58%	0.03	5	-0.20	4	75%	-0.02
Scott Williams	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.16	-0.06	0.00	11	9%	-0.18	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.09	0.01	28	55%	0.18	1	-0.02	9	78%	-0.01
Chris Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	6	43%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	12	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.18,-0.23,-0.07	-0.07	-0.14	0.07	0.00	22	43%	-0.04	1	-0.03	19	84%	0.15
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	6	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	26.1	14.8	23.3	1.7	43.2	135.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -21.1%

BOS +37.5%

MIL -17.4%

BOS +41.9%

BOS +9.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	14.7	15.1	15.5	92.9	98.9	100.9
season	14.9	15.1		105.9	99.7
opponent	15.4	15.8		101.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.5	15.4	14.4	12.9	14.7
BOS	12.3	18.2	15.0	15.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Williams	49	50	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.07	6	-9	15	16.0	13.5	2.55	16.0	14.1	1.93
Mark Pope	46	44	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.07	-2	-1	-1	15.3	14.2	1.14	13.1	16.8	-3.75
Lindsey Hunter	40	39	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-1	-1	14.5	14.9	-0.41	16.2	14.4	1.82
Ray Allen	83	82	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.42	2	-5	7	14.5	15.9	-1.40	15.1	15.2	-0.06
Tim Thomas	69	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	-1	-1	14.2	16.1	-1.98	16.0	13.0	2.98
Sam Cassell	76	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.41	-4	1	-5	14.6	15.1	-0.45	14.2	17.7	-3.54
Ervin Johnson	47	46	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.44	-5	2	-7	14.8	14.7	0.04	17.2	13.1	4.09
Glenn Robinson	80	77	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.36	-8	5	-13	14.5	15.6	-1.06	13.9	20.2	-6.31

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	48	52	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.36	17	-14	31	14.0	16.2	-2.15	15.5	13.8	1.69
Paul Pierce	75	76	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.44	-1	4	-5	15.3	14.5	0.70	14.3	16.2	-1.91
Vitaly Potapenko	41	43	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.35	2	1	1	14.8	15.3	-0.49	16.0	13.7	2.32
Antoine Walker	84	87	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.52	-5	8	-13	15.3	13.9	1.35	14.4	17.5	-3.15
Kenny Anderson	66	67	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.33	0	3	-3	15.4	14.4	1.00	15.3	13.6	1.61
Milt Palacio	29	31	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.09	3	0	3	14.4	15.4	-1.00	13.6	15.3	-1.61
Chris Carr	8	10	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	3	-3	12.6	15.3	-2.71	14.0	14.8	-0.83
Bryant Stith	73	74	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	5	-7	15.5	14.0	1.50	14.4	15.8	-1.44
Mark Blount	51	50	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.06	1	2	-1	15.7	14.4	1.38	14.7	14.7	-0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.59,0.45,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.27,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.3,0.35,0.21,0.24,0.37,0.31,0.46,0.53,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 109, LAL 120	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.14,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.6,0.85,0.72,0.85,1,1	92.8%
DET 84, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.25,0.28,0.42,0.3,0.53,0.61,0.86,0.85,0.99,1,1	92.4%
MEM 117, GSW 122	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.31,0.35,0.6,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.99,1	92.4%