NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	105		Excitement	8.5 [143]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +18.6%
Washington Wizards	100		Comeback	4.6 [257]		LVP	Tyrone Nesby (WAS): -14.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,0.19	0.05	0.13	0.00	17	61%	0.22	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
James Posey	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.06	-0.00	8	65%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	13	52%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	6	58%	0.12	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	15	57%	0.10	3	-0.15	12	67%	-0.02
Raef LaFrentz	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.11	0.01	14	52%	-0.10	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.10

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	20	56%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Calvin Booth	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	17	50%	0.14	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	21	42%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	8	60%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.07
Michael Smith	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	20	43%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	-0.01	8	31%	-0.07	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.8	27.2	15.5	25.7	2.0	32.2	127.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +42.8%

DEN +23.1%

WAS -6.4%

WAS -11.6%

DEN +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	WAS	NBA	DEN	WAS	NBA
this game	15.0	15.3	15.5	110.5	105.3	100.9
season	15.2	15.2		101.4	98.6
opponent	15.2	15.2		105.5	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	12.6	18.2	14.8	15.0
WAS	15.2	15.1	13.9	17.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	68	67	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.27	22	-17	39	14.7	15.7	-0.98	17.1	11.0	6.12
Raef LaFrentz	79	78	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.31	14	-9	23	14.8	16.2	-1.43	16.3	10.6	5.76
George McCloud	50	50	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.52	-4	9	-13	15.3	14.7	0.63	13.7	17.1	-3.33
Antonio McDyess	82	82	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.27	2	3	-1	14.8	16.2	-1.34	15.2	16.0	-0.79
Nick Van Exel	82	83	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.41	-3	8	-11	15.2	13.7	1.52	14.9	18.0	-3.07
Mark Strickland	7	6	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	0	5	16.7	14.9	1.85	21.7	14.9	6.78
Robert Pack	13	12	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.05	8	-3	11	13.7	15.2	-1.52	18.0	14.9	3.07
Voshon Lenard	63	62	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.11	-1	6	-7	15.0	15.1	-0.14	15.6	14.8	0.72
Ryan Bowen	9	11	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.03	-7	12	-19	15.8	14.9	0.86	10.1	16.0	-5.91
Kevin Willis	22	24	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.07	-11	16	-27	16.0	14.7	1.30	10.7	16.9	-6.11

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitch Richmond	60	58	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.35	19	-24	43	13.8	17.9	-4.16	15.0	14.9	0.09
Popeye Jones	16	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-1	-3	17.1	14.9	2.18	13.4	15.3	-1.88
Jahidi White	53	52	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.46	11	-16	27	13.3	17.9	-4.60	16.5	13.2	3.27
Tyrone Nesby	56	55	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.32	6	-11	17	13.8	17.5	-3.73	14.1	16.2	-2.16
Michael Smith	49	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.16	-12	7	-19	17.4	13.1	4.32	14.2	15.8	-1.56
Calvin Booth	18	19	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	7	-19	19.2	14.4	4.82	14.7	15.1	-0.39
Juwan Howard	79	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.37	-1	-4	3	14.9	17.1	-2.18	15.3	13.4	1.88
Chris Whitney	75	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.29	-6	1	-7	15.4	15.1	0.21	15.8	11.7	4.14
Richard Hamilton	69	71	-1.03	0.53	-1.56	-0.27	-26	21	-47	16.9	11.1	5.78	14.3	17.0	-2.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.47,0.38,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.39,0.48,0.57,0.45,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.72,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.62,0.63,0.47,0.54,0.28,0.36,0.28,0.23,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 109, MIN 105	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.81,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.46,0.27,0.32,0.15,0.15,0.27,0	91.8%
PHI 98, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.47,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.28,0.31,0.26,0	91.5%
UTA 109, TOR 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.4,0.22,0.39,0.28,0.11,0.01,0	91.2%