NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	94		Excitement	6.4 [508]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +22.9%
Indiana Pacers	103		Comeback	1.7 [682]		LVP	James Posey (DEN): -14.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.01	0.05	14	59%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	12	54%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Ryan Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Kevin Willis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	11	60%	0.06	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
George McCloud	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.00	20	56%	0.07	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
Voshon Lenard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	10	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robert Pack	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.02	-0.00	7	25%	-0.06	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.14	0.05	16	71%	0.25	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	4	87%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.01	13	53%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	23	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Zan Tabak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	7	65%	0.09	2	-0.08	3	33%	-0.02
Derrick McKey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruno Sundov	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	4	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	6	50%	-0.06	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	1.8	29.1	15.5	26.7	1.8	35.5	131.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +48.0%

DEN -17.6%

IND +11.2%

IND +5.2%

IND +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	IND	NBA	DEN	IND	NBA
this game	16.0	15.6	15.5	104.4	112.0	100.9
season	15.2	15.9		101.4	99.3
opponent	15.6	15.2		99.9	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.9	16.0	15.9	15.4	16.0
IND	13.8	16.0	16.1	16.6	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Pack	11	11	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-9	9	14.7	16.2	-1.50	11.7	16.1	-4.41
Raef LaFrentz	62	66	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-8	7	15.9	16.4	-0.45	15.8	15.0	0.79
Voshon Lenard	62	66	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-7	5	15.9	16.3	-0.40	15.0	17.2	-2.15
George McCloud	33	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.09	-4	-5	1	17.4	15.2	2.18	17.2	14.8	2.34
James Posey	64	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	-3	-3	15.2	18.0	-2.75	14.9	17.6	-2.73
Ryan Bowen	21	20	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.13	-6	-3	-3	16.7	15.9	0.81	17.7	15.0	2.67
Kevin Willis	46	44	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-3	-3	16.2	15.8	0.40	16.5	14.7	1.80
Nick Van Exel	79	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	0	-9	16.2	14.7	1.50	16.1	11.7	4.41
Antonio McDyess	72	74	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.25	-11	2	-13	16.0	16.1	-0.01	14.9	18.7	-3.87

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zan Tabak	47	48	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.26	13	-4	17	15.9	15.3	0.54	15.7	16.4	-0.72
Jalen Rose	82	82	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.13	16	-7	23	15.3	18.2	-2.91	16.2	14.6	1.56
Reggie Miller	76	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.25	8	1	7	15.1	18.1	-2.97	16.5	14.1	2.33
Jeff Foster	52	51	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.09	9	0	9	14.9	16.6	-1.71	17.0	14.8	2.25
Al Harrington	61	60	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.32	1	8	-7	17.1	12.7	4.42	15.6	16.9	-1.23
Travis Best	74	72	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	6	-3	15.7	15.2	0.48	15.1	19.8	-4.67
Derrick McKey	8	7	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.06	3	6	-3	10.0	16.1	-6.14	15.9	16.1	-0.20
Bruno Sundov	31	27	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.03	-3	12	-15	13.3	16.8	-3.45	17.5	15.4	2.11
Jonathan Bender	14	14	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.02	-2	11	-13	20.3	14.8	5.52	16.1	16.0	0.12
Austin Croshere	15	15	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	12	-15	18.5	15.0	3.49	14.5	16.4	-1.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.72,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.73,0.75,0.85,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 76, ORL 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.7%
BOS 108, SEA 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.96,1	93.5%
LAC 92, POR 103	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.57,0.53,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.95,0.98,1	93.3%