NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	99		Excitement	4.7 [853]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +22.9%
Toronto Raptors	107		Comeback	3.1 [508]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (CHH): -13.4%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lee Nailon	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	10	60%	0.03	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.01	7	65%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	12	43%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.02
David Wesley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	17	48%	-0.04	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Eddie Robinson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Coleman	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	7	43%	-0.07	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.03
Jamal Mashburn	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	19	48%	-0.06	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.32	0.01	0.10	23	83%	0.26	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.03	9	72%	0.12	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	13	50%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	56%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	12	41%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.08	0.03	-0.06	12	46%	0.05	4	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Michael Stewart	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	8	22%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	27.2	15.7	23.1	2.5	29.6	122.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +42.4%

CHH -2.5%

TOR +3.6%

TOR +6.2%

TOR +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	TOR	NBA	CHH	TOR	NBA
this game	15.5	16.2	15.5	108.8	117.6	100.9
season	15.8	15.8		99.7	103.7
opponent	15.4	15.6		101.6	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	13.5	16.8	18.1	13.9	15.5
TOR	17.2	15.3	16.1	16.1	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hersey Hawkins	8	8	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.03	4	-12	16	18.4	15.2	3.17	16.7	16.1	0.64
P.J. Brown	60	60	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-11	14	14.4	17.6	-3.28	17.2	14.1	3.09
Lee Nailon	22	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-4	0	17.1	15.0	2.12	14.6	16.6	-2.07
Baron Davis	80	81	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.26	2	-10	12	15.4	16.0	-0.59	16.2	15.7	0.52
Jamaal Magloire	21	19	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.01	-7	-1	-6	15.3	15.5	-0.20	16.4	16.1	0.26
Elden Campbell	70	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-7	6	15.5	15.3	0.20	16.1	16.4	-0.26
Jamal Mashburn	69	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-4	0	15.0	17.1	-2.12	16.6	14.6	2.07
Derrick Coleman	31	31	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	3	-14	17.6	14.4	3.28	14.1	17.2	-3.09
Eddie Robinson	19	19	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.03	-14	6	-20	17.9	14.8	3.11	13.2	17.0	-3.80
David Wesley	75	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	0	-8	14.6	19.5	-4.87	16.8	13.4	3.46

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Jackson	71	70	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.10	17	-9	26	16.4	15.4	0.92	15.6	15.0	0.63
Antonio Davis	72	72	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.07	16	-8	24	16.3	15.6	0.67	16.2	12.9	3.27
Vince Carter	81	80	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	0	8	16.4	14.5	1.87	15.1	18.0	-2.86
Morris Peterson	44	45	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.03	16	-8	24	16.5	15.9	0.56	16.0	15.0	1.07
Charles Oakley	70	67	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.17	8	0	8	16.8	14.1	2.69	15.4	15.7	-0.36
Keon Clark	35	37	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.14	3	5	-2	14.4	17.3	-2.87	15.6	15.4	0.23
Michael Stewart	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	15	-22	17.1	16.1	1.05	11.9	15.9	-3.99
Alvin Williams	37	38	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.26	-11	19	-30	15.2	16.8	-1.64	14.8	16.0	-1.15
Tracy Murray	36	37	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.18	-10	18	-28	15.9	16.3	-0.36	15.6	15.4	0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 71, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.77,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
MIA 83, POR 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.76,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
HOU 102, MIN 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.69,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%