NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	96		Excitement	9.3 [87]		MVP	Elton Brand (CHI): +62.4%
Chicago Bulls	98		Comeback	1.6 [578]		LVP	Obinna Ekezie (WAS): -17.1%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Whitney	0.57	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.57	0.11	0.47	0.00	17	69%	0.63	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.23
Richard Hamilton	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	19	53%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	8	59%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Felipe Lopez	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.00	6	25%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Nesby	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	9	32%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Michael Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	62%	0.03	1	-0.08	6	50%	-0.07
Juwan Howard	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	20	48%	-0.02	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Obinna Ekezie	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	-0.00	2	25%	-0.05	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elton Brand	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0,0,0.05,0.62	0.62	0.09	0.54	0.00	17	71%	0.80	3	-0.18	8	75%	-0.03
Bryce Drew	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.44	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.00	9	67%	0.47	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.02	0.02	7	73%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dragan Tarlac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Khalid El-Amin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	58%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.05	0.01	16	50%	0.10	5	-0.15	4	75%	0.03
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	5	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.7	27.2	16.5	30.0	0.3	33.8	133.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +90.6%

WAS -20.0%

WAS -3.2%

WAS -23.1%

CHI +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	CHI	NBA	WAS	CHI	NBA
this game	16.1	16.5	15.5	105.5	114.0	100.9
season	15.2	16.4		98.6	95.2
opponent	15.1	15.2		104.9	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	18.3	17.3	14.8	14.3	16.1
CHI	16.8	16.2	15.2	17.8	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Calvin Booth	33	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-1	0	16.6	15.8	0.83	17.7	15.8	1.98
Obinna Ekezie	25	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-1	0	17.7	15.5	2.21	15.0	17.0	-2.02
Juwan Howard	77	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.46	7	-9	16	16.0	16.5	-0.50	17.1	12.9	4.14
Tyrone Nesby	63	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.02	-10	8	-18	16.4	15.4	0.99	16.2	17.0	-0.78
Felipe Lopez	63	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-1	0	16.5	15.1	1.45	16.7	16.0	0.69
Chris Whitney	83	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.49	4	-6	10	15.8	19.4	-3.62	16.5	16.0	0.52
Richard Hamilton	64	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.49	1	-3	4	15.7	16.9	-1.10	16.5	16.5	-0.09
Michael Smith	47	44	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.40	-9	7	-16	15.0	17.2	-2.27	15.4	17.6	-2.23

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	74	77	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.46	5	-3	8	17.1	12.6	4.52	16.6	13.3	3.30
Bryce Drew	52	56	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.48	3	-1	4	16.1	17.1	-0.96	16.2	15.9	0.31
Michael Ruffin	57	62	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.43	4	-2	6	16.2	16.9	-0.69	16.5	15.2	1.28
Fred Hoiberg	68	71	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.47	2	0	2	16.3	17.3	-1.01	16.2	15.5	0.68
Ron Mercer	76	81	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.45	2	0	2	16.2	18.5	-2.29	16.2	15.3	0.87
Metta World Peace	28	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	2	-2	17.7	15.9	1.83	15.5	16.4	-0.91
Khalid El-Amin	34	35	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.04	-1	3	-4	17.1	16.1	0.96	15.9	16.2	-0.31
Dragan Tarlac	17	18	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.04	-4	6	-10	15.2	16.8	-1.55	14.4	16.5	-2.04
Marcus Fizer	24	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.05	-1	3	-4	16.0	16.7	-0.72	14.7	16.6	-1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.65,0.74,0.64,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.76,0.68,0.53,0.71,0.54,0.69,0.46,0.68,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 87, ATL 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.81,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.46,0.77,0.98,1	91.8%
SAS 99, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.78,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.74,1	91.7%
MIN 105, SAC 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.91,1	91.7%