NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	79		Excitement	3.5 [1062]		MVP	A.C. Green (MIA): +10.3%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	1.0 [1056]		LVP	Reggie Miller (IND): -13.1%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick McKey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
Jeff Foster	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.03	10	60%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Sam Perkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Tyus Edney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.00	0.08	7	75%	-0.00	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	0.00	15	39%	-0.07	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.00
Reggie Miller	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	13	32%	-0.05	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.01	8	79%	0.11	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.01	-0.03	12	58%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.04	2	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	0.03	16	56%	0.04	4	-0.08	7	71%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.12	0.00	-0.07	13	31%	-0.02	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	12	38%	-0.03	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.14	-0.00	-0.04	6	0%	-0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.6	28.5	19.6	25.1	2.8	38.0	142.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.0%

MIA +0.0%

MIA +13.6%

MIA +6.1%

MIA +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	16.8	15.5	84.9	100.0	100.9
season	15.9	16.3		99.3	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.6		96.9	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.4	15.3	14.7	13.8	14.6
MIA	13.8	16.0	18.0	19.8	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Foster	24	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-12	12	14.8	14.5	0.37	17.7	16.4	1.22
Jonathan Bender	31	30	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-12	12	14.5	14.6	-0.11	17.9	16.2	1.69
Al Harrington	24	22	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-12	12	14.8	14.5	0.31	18.5	16.2	2.28
Tyus Edney	15	15	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-8	4	12.2	15.0	-2.81	13.9	17.3	-3.40
Sam Perkins	22	21	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	-6	0	15.5	14.3	1.23	14.1	17.6	-3.41
Derrick McKey	50	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-11	10	13.9	15.3	-1.34	16.9	16.7	0.22
Travis Best	56	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-6	0	14.4	14.8	-0.46	16.9	16.6	0.34
Austin Croshere	39	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.10	-7	-5	-2	14.7	14.4	0.32	15.7	17.5	-1.86
Jermaine O'Neal	56	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-1	-10	14.6	14.5	0.08	17.1	16.2	0.88
Jalen Rose	74	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.11	-11	-1	-10	14.9	13.4	1.43	16.9	16.1	0.80
Reggie Miller	75	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.04	-14	2	-16	14.6	14.5	0.07	16.8	16.7	0.08

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	79	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.08	13	-1	14	17.3	13.3	3.96	14.6	14.1	0.55
Bruce Bowen	70	70	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	1	10	16.3	18.2	-1.85	13.9	16.5	-2.55
Anthony Mason	77	80	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	4	4	16.9	16.2	0.66	14.7	13.5	1.28
Tim Hardaway	66	67	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	-1	14	15.9	19.0	-3.13	14.1	15.7	-1.57
A.C. Green	48	49	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	6	0	16.2	17.4	-1.23	14.7	14.4	0.37
Brian Grant	56	56	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	4	4	17.1	16.2	0.93	14.4	14.8	-0.46
Dan Majerle	34	36	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	10	-8	16.4	17.0	-0.52	15.3	14.1	1.17
Eddie House	25	26	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	13	-14	19.0	15.9	3.13	15.7	14.1	1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.8,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 77, LAC 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
DEN 76, MIN 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.83,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.2%
DEN 83, CLE 102	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.89,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%