NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	86		Excitement	2.9 [1147]		MVP	Steve Nash (DAL): +12.8%
Dallas Mavericks	105		Comeback	1.1 [1208]		LVP	Marcus Fizer (CHI): -16.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khalid El-Amin	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.03	14	64%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corey Benjamin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.00	0.05	10	70%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Dalibor Bagaric	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	3	20%	-0.00	1	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	12	58%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Ruffin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	3	25%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Dragan Tarlac	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	1	100%	0.02	6	-0.10	2	100%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.02	0.00	18	40%	-0.07	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Marcus Fizer	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.03	0.01	10	36%	-0.07	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.15	0.01	0.04	12	85%	0.13	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Loy Vaught	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.04	5	77%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	11	56%	0.04	3	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	71%	0.00	2	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	8	35%	0.00	1	-0.00	7	29%	-0.00
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.07	0.00	0.07	14	59%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	8	37%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.10	-0.01	-0.07	7	14%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	25.1	15.6	27.4	2.3	27.6	122.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +15.8%

DAL +5.8%

DAL +6.2%

DAL +21.1%

DAL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DAL	NBA	CHI	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	15.2	15.5	91.5	110.5	100.9
season	16.4	15.2		95.2	104.6
opponent	15.3	15.1		101.2	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.0	17.5	15.5	13.1	15.3
DAL	15.7	13.1	15.1	16.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dalibor Bagaric	21	22	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-28	37	13.3	15.8	-2.52	16.3	14.9	1.41
Corey Benjamin	36	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-14	9	14.6	15.7	-1.19	15.6	14.9	0.74
Jamal Crawford	51	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.08	-11	-8	-3	14.2	16.6	-2.34	16.3	13.7	2.61
Khalid El-Amin	55	55	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-14	9	15.8	14.5	1.28	14.4	16.3	-1.96
Michael Ruffin	49	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.32	-20	1	-21	16.4	14.1	2.30	15.4	15.0	0.47
Dragan Tarlac	47	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.24	-20	1	-21	14.9	15.7	-0.83	13.7	16.7	-2.91
Metta World Peace	58	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.02	-14	-5	-9	15.7	14.6	1.19	14.9	15.6	-0.74
Marcus Fizer	71	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-12	5	15.4	15.0	0.38	15.7	13.6	2.02
Ron Mercer	82	81	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.15	-22	3	-25	15.6	13.2	2.43	15.0	16.3	-1.29

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	46	46	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.33	25	-6	31	13.7	16.6	-2.94	16.5	14.1	2.46
Howard Eisley	48	49	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.28	22	-3	25	14.4	16.0	-1.56	15.9	14.6	1.32
Hubert Davis	66	65	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	14	-9	15.8	13.9	1.91	14.4	17.4	-3.03
Shawn Bradley	29	29	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.08	14	5	9	13.7	15.8	-2.11	16.9	14.6	2.38
Courtney Alexander	36	35	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	16	-13	15.0	15.3	-0.26	13.5	16.4	-2.92
Steve Nash	47	47	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.24	18	1	17	13.7	16.6	-2.90	17.9	12.7	5.13
Michael Finley	53	54	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.32	18	1	17	15.2	15.2	-0.09	16.8	13.3	3.46
Christian Laettner	41	40	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.15	10	9	1	15.7	14.8	0.91	15.5	15.1	0.37
Loy Vaught	40	40	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.19	-3	22	-25	16.8	14.0	2.74	13.8	16.4	-2.63
Mark Bryant	25	25	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.17	-5	24	-29	16.0	14.9	1.15	13.0	16.1	-3.06
Eduardo Najera	27	25	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.27	-9	28	-37	17.7	14.2	3.46	12.2	16.4	-4.26
Donnell Harvey	17	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	22	-25	16.1	15.0	1.06	13.6	15.6	-2.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 96, ORL 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
DEN 82, SAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
DEN 87, CHH 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%