NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	106		Excitement	2.3 [1213]		MVP	Eldridge Recasner (CHH): +13.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	90		Comeback	1.9 [361]		LVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): -7.2%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eldridge Recasner	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.01	-0.03	5	110%	0.14	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.00	0.03	4	93%	0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.00	0.05	11	80%	0.06	2	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
David Wesley	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.00	0.05	17	67%	0.06	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.06	9	53%	0.03	3	-0.01	1	0%	0.00
Eddie Robinson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrance Roberson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim James	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	25%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.01	0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	10	62%	0.03	6	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.11	-0.00	-0.10	6	21%	-0.02	2	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.05	15	62%	0.03	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	4	67%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	14	56%	0.03	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	9	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	15	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	8	47%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.15	-0.00	-0.08	12	32%	-0.07	1	0.00	10	70%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.8	26.9	15.7	21.6	2.4	28.6	120.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +44.6%

CHH +1.3%

MIL -4.6%

CHH +5.1%

CHH +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	MIL	NBA	CHH	MIL	NBA
this game	17.4	15.9	15.5	121.8	104.7	100.9
season	15.8	14.9		99.7	105.9
opponent	15.8	15.6		102.3	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	18.2	15.6	18.9	17.0	17.4
MIL	14.5	18.7	15.4	15.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eldridge Recasner	42	42	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.06	19	-3	22	16.6	18.2	-1.61	16.3	15.5	0.79
Baron Davis	68	68	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.21	20	-4	24	18.0	15.3	2.74	16.5	13.5	3.01
Eddie Robinson	23	25	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.22	20	-4	24	16.8	17.6	-0.84	18.2	14.9	3.27
P.J. Brown	59	59	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.05	13	3	10	17.9	16.3	1.59	16.2	15.2	0.96
Jamaal Magloire	37	37	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.15	16	0	16	17.6	17.3	0.33	16.0	15.8	0.20
Elden Campbell	44	43	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.11	10	6	4	17.4	17.4	-0.08	16.7	15.0	1.67
Lee Nailon	25	25	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.03	5	11	-6	16.6	17.7	-1.13	14.8	16.3	-1.47
Jamal Mashburn	56	54	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.10	8	8	0	17.9	16.5	1.33	15.3	16.8	-1.53
David Wesley	52	51	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.04	3	13	-10	17.7	17.0	0.63	15.2	16.9	-1.69
Terrance Roberson	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.35	-12	28	-40	15.9	17.6	-1.68	12.0	16.2	-4.23
Tim James	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.35	-12	28	-40	15.7	17.6	-1.94	11.9	16.3	-4.42
Hersey Hawkins	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	26	-36	15.8	17.7	-1.82	13.6	16.2	-2.58

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	15	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.30	10	-26	36	14.7	16.1	-1.47	14.4	18.0	-3.63
Mark Pope	49	51	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.40	13	-29	42	14.2	18.1	-3.81	17.4	17.5	-0.12
Sam Cassell	50	51	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.34	-18	2	-20	15.1	17.0	-1.92	18.9	15.3	3.58
Ervin Johnson	39	40	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.14	-12	-4	-8	16.2	15.6	0.64	20.0	15.2	4.85
Ray Allen	55	57	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	-7	-2	15.4	16.7	-1.34	18.3	15.6	2.70
Rafer Alston	48	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-14	12	16.4	15.3	1.11	16.0	19.1	-3.14
Joel Przybilla	23	24	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-14	12	17.3	15.4	1.88	15.0	18.3	-3.26
Tim Thomas	55	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.25	-18	2	-20	16.5	14.7	1.84	17.0	18.1	-1.03
Lindsey Hunter	52	53	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.16	-10	-6	-4	16.6	14.9	1.70	16.9	18.2	-1.32
Jason Caffey	44	42	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	0.35	-32	16	-48	16.5	15.3	1.17	17.0	17.8	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 111, GSW 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.34,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
DEN 119, ORL 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.43,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
CLE 101, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.32,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%