NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	105		Excitement	4.5 [882]		MVP	P.J. Brown (CHH): +8.2%
Detroit Pistons	96		Comeback	1.3 [697]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -23.2%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	7	75%	0.09	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Eddie Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.08	15	47%	0.06	3	-0.05	6	50%	-0.01
Lee Nailon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	15	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Hersey Hawkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	4	42%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	14	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	10	50%	-0.05
Baron Davis	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.14	0.02	-0.08	18	52%	0.08	7	-0.13	12	75%	-0.00
Eldridge Recasner	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	6	83%	0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	58%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Eric Montross	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	70%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	8	60%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	6	50%	-0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	2	57%	-0.01	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	7	28%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	16	42%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.24	-0.03	-0.04	23	40%	-0.07	7	-0.16	9	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	241.6	2.4	27.7	16.3	26.6	2.7	41.3	358.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +24.9%

CHH +0.8%

CHH +4.2%

CHH +17.0%

CHH +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	DET	NBA	CHH	DET	NBA
this game	14.6	14.5	15.5	105.0	98.0	100.9
season	15.8	14.3		99.7	97.9
opponent	15.4	15.6		99.6	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	12.0	14.7	16.1	15.8	14.6
DET	15.8	16.6	14.6	11.3	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	69	66	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.05	19	-10	29	15.7	12.1	3.66	15.4	12.6	2.78
Baron Davis	90	89	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	0	9	15.0	11.0	3.99	14.2	17.1	-2.88
Elden Campbell	77	75	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-1	11	14.7	14.2	0.54	14.2	15.6	-1.45
David Wesley	85	82	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-1	11	14.0	17.9	-3.85	14.2	16.1	-1.94
Jamal Mashburn	78	77	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.21	7	2	5	14.2	16.1	-1.98	14.0	16.2	-2.21
Eddie Robinson	33	32	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	8	-7	12.5	15.6	-3.14	13.7	14.9	-1.16
Hersey Hawkins	15	16	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	10	-11	17.9	14.0	3.85	16.1	14.2	1.94
Jamaal Magloire	23	23	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	10	-11	14.2	14.7	-0.54	15.6	14.2	1.45
Eldridge Recasner	10	9	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.04	0	9	-9	11.0	15.0	-3.99	17.1	14.2	2.88
Lee Nailon	20	21	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.15	-9	18	-27	15.8	14.3	1.57	14.6	14.5	0.09

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Billy Owens	49	49	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.34	12	-21	33	12.9	16.1	-3.20	15.8	13.5	2.32
John Wallace	28	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.03	-2	-7	5	14.8	14.4	0.45	11.6	15.9	-4.32
Mikki Moore	24	26	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-10	11	13.6	14.8	-1.21	17.3	13.6	3.72
Jud Buechler	32	33	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.10	-1	-8	7	13.5	15.0	-1.48	13.5	15.1	-1.65
Cedric Ceballos	27	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.15	0	-9	9	15.1	14.3	0.84	16.5	13.9	2.59
Jerome Williams	33	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	-1	-7	17.4	13.0	4.36	14.7	14.5	0.17
Mateen Cleaves	30	31	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.12	-3	-6	3	14.6	14.4	0.19	12.9	15.3	-2.40
Eric Montross	20	22	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.08	-12	3	-15	14.2	14.6	-0.31	13.3	14.9	-1.63
Chucky Atkins	68	69	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-3	-3	14.4	14.6	-0.19	15.3	12.9	2.40
Ben Wallace	62	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.12	-7	-2	-5	14.9	13.7	1.19	14.4	14.9	-0.46
Michael Curry	30	31	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.10	-15	6	-21	15.8	13.9	1.87	13.8	14.9	-1.09
Jerry Stackhouse	87	90	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-5	1	13.9	19.0	-5.07	14.6	14.1	0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 97, PHI 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.33,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
DET 98, LAC 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	96.1%
ORL 113, TOR 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.3,0.21,0.14,0.1,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%