NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	81		Excitement	5.1 [778]		MVP	Travis Best (IND): +8.8%
Indiana Pacers	94		Comeback	1.6 [1077]		LVP	Ron Mercer (CHI): -21.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryce Drew	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	9	61%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0.05	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	69%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
A.J. Guyton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khalid El-Amin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	10	52%	-0.04	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.01
Marcus Fizer	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	10	30%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	13	50%	-0.04	3	-0.07	12	92%	0.03
Ron Mercer	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.14	-0.08	-0.00	14	45%	-0.06	6	-0.16	5	80%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	18	60%	0.12	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Zan Tabak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.01
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.09	0.00	0.12	13	65%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0	100%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	14	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	3	37%	-0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	8	12%	-0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	32.4	15.8	24.8	1.8	30.3	132.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +12.1%

IND +4.4%

CHI -2.2%

IND +32.1%

IND +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	16.4	15.4	15.5	89.0	104.4	100.9
season	16.4	15.9		95.2	99.3
opponent	15.6	15.1		99.9	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.7	16.4	16.8	14.6	16.4
IND	15.8	13.6	15.1	17.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.J. Guyton	11	11	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-13	13	14.6	16.6	-1.98	16.6	15.3	1.36
Brad Miller	55	55	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	-7	1	16.4	16.4	-0.03	15.8	14.9	0.91
Marcus Fizer	47	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-9	5	16.1	16.7	-0.60	15.0	15.9	-0.89
Bryce Drew	63	62	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-9	5	16.5	16.1	0.44	15.9	14.5	1.32
Michael Ruffin	31	30	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-9	5	16.1	16.5	-0.42	14.8	15.7	-0.92
Khalid El-Amin	17	17	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.03	-9	-4	-5	17.0	16.2	0.77	13.2	16.0	-2.80
Ron Mercer	79	78	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-9	5	16.3	16.6	-0.24	15.6	14.7	0.90
Metta World Peace	30	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.10	-6	-7	1	18.2	15.5	2.72	16.1	15.1	0.95
Fred Hoiberg	44	45	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.00	-15	2	-17	15.2	17.5	-2.35	15.8	15.1	0.67
Elton Brand	78	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.10	-13	0	-13	16.7	14.5	2.14	15.1	17.2	-2.10

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Best	76	77	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.09	13	0	13	15.6	14.6	0.95	16.8	13.8	3.06
Jonathan Bender	30	28	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	2	9	14.5	15.9	-1.37	15.2	16.9	-1.62
Austin Croshere	66	65	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	2	9	15.5	15.4	0.09	16.5	16.1	0.42
Jermaine O'Neal	51	52	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.08	12	1	11	16.0	14.7	1.33	16.7	15.9	0.79
Al Harrington	43	44	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.11	5	8	-3	15.3	15.6	-0.36	15.8	16.9	-1.08
Zan Tabak	53	53	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.08	6	7	-1	14.7	16.5	-1.86	16.5	16.1	0.42
Derrick McKey	28	30	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.12	4	9	-5	15.3	15.5	-0.23	15.5	16.8	-1.25
Reggie Miller	67	69	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	12	-11	15.7	14.7	0.95	17.0	14.4	2.65
Sam Perkins	25	25	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.07	0	13	-13	17.6	14.6	2.98	16.3	16.4	-0.13
Tyus Edney	11	12	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	11	-9	12.5	15.8	-3.30	13.7	16.8	-3.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 94, MIN 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.82,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.88,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.88,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1	95.5%
SAS 83, LAC 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.77,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.81,0.86,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.78,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.99,1,1,0.99,1	94.9%
WAS 91, NYK 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.72,0.81,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.81,0.83,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.68,0.81,0.9,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%