NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	104		Excitement	4.5 [897]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): +10.1%
Toronto Raptors	95		Comeback	1.5 [207]		LVP	Antonio Davis (TOR): -19.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0.10	0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.02	35	55%	0.12	2	-0.02	10	90%	0.03
Jerome Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mateen Cleaves	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	120%	0.04	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.05	25	40%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	6	64%	0.06	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Cedric Ceballos	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00
John Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	-0.00	-0.02	8	78%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Kornel David	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	24	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	8	52%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	8	41%	-0.06	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.04
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	0.03	12	46%	-0.04	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.20	-0.03	-0.04	12	25%	-0.14	4	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.5	27.3	16.3	27.6	3.5	30.5	133.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +34.4%

DET +8.3%

TOR -7.5%

DET +12.6%

DET +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	13.7	15.1	15.5	104.0	95.0	100.9
season	14.3	15.8		97.9	103.7
opponent	15.4	15.4		101.6	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	12.7	12.9	13.2	16.3	13.7
TOR	14.5	17.6	14.0	14.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerry Stackhouse	90	91	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.05	16	-7	23	13.3	17.8	-4.52	14.9	16.9	-2.00
Ben Wallace	82	80	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	1	7	13.9	12.9	0.96	14.7	16.5	-1.85
Jerome Williams	60	59	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-1	11	13.6	13.8	-0.20	15.2	14.8	0.41
Chucky Atkins	77	76	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.28	-1	10	-11	14.3	11.8	2.47	14.1	18.2	-4.13
Mateen Cleaves	23	24	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.05	10	-1	11	11.8	14.3	-2.47	18.2	14.1	4.13
Billy Owens	42	40	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.12	1	8	-7	14.0	13.5	0.51	12.8	16.6	-3.83
John Wallace	20	20	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.06	3	6	-3	13.4	13.8	-0.41	13.6	15.4	-1.84
Jud Buechler	30	31	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.19	-2	11	-13	14.7	13.3	1.34	14.9	15.2	-0.29
Mikki Moore	22	22	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	6	-3	12.1	14.2	-2.10	15.9	14.8	1.02
Cedric Ceballos	1	2	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.01	3	6	-3	16.0	13.7	2.29	10.5	15.2	-4.66
Michael Curry	23	23	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	10	-11	14.5	13.5	0.97	19.9	13.6	6.29
Eric Montross	30	32	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.14	-5	14	-19	14.2	13.5	0.67	16.4	14.4	2.01

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kornel David	2	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-9	9	15.0	15.1	-0.07	16.0	13.7	2.34
Muggsy Bogues	16	16	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.01	-4	-5	1	15.1	15.1	-0.01	13.7	13.7	0.02
Dell Curry	33	32	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-9	9	14.9	15.1	-0.24	14.8	13.2	1.55
Morris Peterson	46	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.32	5	-14	19	15.4	14.8	0.55	14.9	12.7	2.20
Alvin Williams	28	29	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-5	1	15.2	15.0	0.25	12.7	14.2	-1.51
Antonio Davis	61	60	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.03	-8	-1	-7	15.6	14.2	1.42	13.4	14.2	-0.87
Kevin Willis	46	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-5	1	15.5	14.7	0.80	14.0	13.5	0.55
Corliss Williamson	48	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	1	-11	14.0	16.0	-2.02	12.7	14.7	-1.98
Charles Oakley	74	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-5	1	14.8	15.8	-0.94	13.7	13.7	0.01
Vince Carter	83	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	-2	-5	15.1	14.7	0.44	13.5	14.9	-1.39
Mark Jackson	63	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	0	-9	15.0	15.2	-0.19	13.9	13.4	0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.33,0.22,0.31,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 116, WAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.34,0.23,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0	95.8%
PHX 93, NOH 78	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.8%
SEA 103, MIN 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.16,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%