NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	83		Excitement	7.5 [315]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +23.7%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	2.3 [528]		LVP	Chris Childs (NYK): -22.8%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	5	73%	0.10	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Patrick Ewing	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	16	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.02
Charlie Ward	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.07	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Larry Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1	0.00	-0.09	0.01	9	44%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	12	39%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.06
Allan Houston	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16	-0.06	-0.12	-0.02	18	52%	0.13	5	-0.29	4	100%	0.02
Chris Childs	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23	-0.07	-0.18	-0.01	6	33%	-0.10	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.24	0.24	0.01	0.23	-0.00	20	53%	0.26	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	0.00	4	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	15	54%	0.07	3	-0.08	9	100%	0.05
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	7	53%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	7	57%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.22	-0.22	-0.11	-0.11	0.00	8	33%	-0.13	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	3.4	35.4	19.4	26.5	2.6	37.3	149.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.7%

MIA +0.9%

MIA +2.6%

MIA +21.4%

NYK -8.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	15.9	16.4	15.2	93.3	97.8	101.7
season	16.1	15.7		100.0	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.8		98.2	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	17.4	15.1	15.0	16.2	15.9
MIA	12.6	16.2	17.8	19.8	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	48	49	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.03	10	-14	24	15.8	16.1	-0.26	17.3	15.3	2.05
Kurt Thomas	9	10	0.01	-0.52	0.53	0.01	0	-4	4	17.0	15.8	1.19	21.7	15.8	5.94
Charlie Ward	42	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.00	-6	2	-8	16.8	15.1	1.66	15.7	17.1	-1.39
Chris Childs	47	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-6	8	15.1	16.8	-1.66	16.7	16.0	0.70
Allan Houston	78	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.34	-6	2	-8	15.8	16.8	-1.01	15.3	23.4	-8.08
Patrick Ewing	76	74	-0.53	0.02	-0.55	-0.35	-6	2	-8	16.0	15.7	0.28	16.0	18.7	-2.69
Larry Johnson	72	72	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.37	-6	2	-8	16.1	15.4	0.72	16.4	16.4	0.02
Latrell Sprewell	73	73	-0.77	0.26	-1.03	-0.53	-8	4	-12	15.8	16.4	-0.54	16.9	14.2	2.65

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	68	68	0.73	-0.22	0.95	0.41	11	-7	18	15.4	19.8	-4.36	16.1	15.3	0.85
Alonzo Mourning	69	70	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.39	8	-4	12	15.7	19.1	-3.45	16.3	14.6	1.72
Tim Hardaway	55	58	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.36	9	-5	14	15.9	17.4	-1.50	15.8	16.2	-0.45
Jamal Mashburn	82	82	0.47	0.04	0.43	0.41	2	2	0	16.4	16.9	-0.47	15.5	20.4	-4.88
Dan Majerle	71	71	0.42	0.09	0.33	0.33	3	1	2	15.3	20.9	-5.59	15.9	16.2	-0.36
Bruce Bowen	19	18	0.10	0.41	-0.31	0.07	1	3	-2	19.8	15.5	4.34	16.2	15.9	0.36
Clar. Weatherspoon	21	21	-0.11	0.62	-0.73	-0.08	-1	5	-6	21.2	14.9	6.30	17.1	15.6	1.52
Anthony Carter	34	31	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	9	-14	17.4	15.9	1.50	16.2	15.8	0.45
Otis Thorpe	26	26	-0.20	0.71	-0.91	0.03	-8	12	-20	18.0	15.8	2.22	14.7	16.4	-1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.53,0.5,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.33,0.39,0.55,0.67,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 97, ORL 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.31,0.46,0.68,0.84,1	92.8%
POR 92, WAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.62,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.76,0.85,1	92.3%
CHI 88, CHH 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.69,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.51,0.67,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.34,0.25,0.36,0.55,0.72,1	91.6%