NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	85		Excitement	4.7 [852]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (MIA): +9.1%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	1.2 [823]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -19.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	112%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loy Vaught	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.02	-0.06	10	42%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	0%	-0.04
Mikki Moore	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.03	9	55%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
John Crotty	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.04	0.04	16	52%	-0.06	5	-0.12	12	58%	-0.04
Grant Hill	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	9	50%	-0.05	6	-0.14	8	87%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	4	92%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	0.01	0.05	17	69%	0.11	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	8	61%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	16	56%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	-0.04	12	38%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	10	30%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	2.8	33.5	19.4	27.5	3.4	39.6	155.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.1%

MIA +5.3%

DET -10.3%

MIA +22.1%

MIA +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	16.9	15.2	95.5	105.6	101.7
season	14.1	15.7		104.2	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.3		98.2	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.9	14.4	14.2	13.9	15.2
MIA	16.2	19.2	15.8	16.7	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jud Buechler	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.03	-1	-9	8	12.0	15.4	-3.36	9.0	17.2	-8.20
John Crotty	34	33	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-12	14	15.5	15.1	0.46	17.1	16.8	0.22
Loy Vaught	5	4	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-9	8	16.2	15.2	1.01	13.7	17.1	-3.32
Michael Curry	32	31	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.11	2	-12	14	17.7	13.8	3.91	16.8	17.0	-0.13
Mikki Moore	33	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-11	12	15.9	14.8	1.10	17.8	16.4	1.33
Eric Montross	6	6	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-4	-2	14.7	15.3	-0.62	15.0	17.1	-2.06
Terry Mills	39	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.17	1	-11	12	14.0	16.2	-2.17	17.1	16.8	0.28
Jerome Williams	59	61	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.15	-1	-9	8	14.7	16.2	-1.49	17.0	16.8	0.19
Christian Laettner	35	36	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.01	-15	5	-20	17.0	14.1	2.94	16.6	17.2	-0.61
Jerry Stackhouse	77	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	1	-12	15.2	15.7	-0.58	17.1	15.8	1.35
Lindsey Hunter	55	57	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	2	-14	15.1	15.5	-0.46	16.8	17.1	-0.22
Grant Hill	67	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.25	-9	-1	-8	14.1	18.6	-4.44	17.1	16.4	0.71

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	78	78	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.14	13	-3	16	17.1	15.5	1.64	15.3	14.9	0.39
P.J. Brown	63	62	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.01	18	-8	26	17.0	16.8	0.21	15.1	15.6	-0.55
Dan Majerle	74	74	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.13	9	1	8	16.6	18.2	-1.54	15.4	14.7	0.62
Bruce Bowen	50	48	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.17	6	4	2	17.0	16.8	0.27	15.6	14.9	0.68
Alonzo Mourning	62	62	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	5	0	17.5	15.7	1.70	15.0	15.7	-0.66
Anthony Carter	68	67	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.18	2	8	-6	16.9	17.0	-0.16	14.9	16.5	-1.60
Clar. Weatherspoon	35	34	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.17	1	9	-8	16.1	17.5	-1.42	15.7	15.0	0.74
Otis Thorpe	20	20	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.09	-4	14	-18	16.6	17.0	-0.41	15.6	15.1	0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.91,0.97,0.95,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 74, MIL 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
GSW 91, SAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.87,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
POR 94, ORL 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.69,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1	95.1%