NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	128		Excitement	12.1 [16]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +31.0%
Boston Celtics	133		Comeback	70.4 [37]		LVP	Derrick White (BOS): -11.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrese Haliburton	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.07	0.01	18	64%	0.39	3	-0.23	3	100%	0.09
Pascal Siakam	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.16,0.12	0.02	0.10	-0.00	23	52%	0.18	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nembhard	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	10	60%	0.15	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	-0.01	0.01	13	82%	0.24	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	0.06	-0.06	0.01	8	83%	0.12	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Nesmith	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	12	56%	0.16	5	-0.16	1	100%	0.01
T.J. McConnell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.02	11	54%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Ben Sheppard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,0.01,0.09,0.31	0.31	0.08	0.22	-0.01	26	56%	0.51	4	-0.20	12	83%	0.07
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.02	0.14	-0.01	20	54%	0.28	3	-0.11	8	62%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.04	0.01	16	78%	0.34	4	-0.18	4	100%	0.02
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.00	4	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	-0.00	-0.02	15	45%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	71%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.12	-0.12	0.01	-0.12	0.01	13	54%	-0.03	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.5	3.5	27.4	15.4	34.0	2.8	34.0	2.5	20.4	165.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.4	15.1	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -14.3%

BOS +19.6%

BOS +17.2%

BOS +26.0%

BOS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	BOS	NBA	IND	BOS	NBA
this game	13.3	14.8	14.5	115.3	115.7	113.9
season	13.8	14.9		120.0	120.7
opponent	14.7	14.7		109.6	117.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
IND	13.4	12.7	13.8	14.8	10.1	13.3
BOS	13.3	16.6	12.0	18.8	14.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Sheppard	35	37	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.02	5	-10	15	13.9	13.0	0.83	15.3	14.6	0.73
Aaron Nesmith	83	86	0.10	-0.59	0.69	0.07	1	-6	7	13.8	12.1	1.70	14.3	17.0	-2.69
Isaiah Jackson	7	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-6	7	14.3	13.3	0.99	14.4	15.0	-0.54
Jalen Smith	2	2	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-3	1	12.5	13.4	-0.87	14.0	15.0	-0.96
Pascal Siakam	86	90	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.25	5	-10	15	13.5	13.0	0.45	15.0	14.6	0.45
Obi Toppin	46	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-7	9	13.6	13.2	0.44	14.3	15.4	-1.16
Myles Turner	81	84	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	6	-17	13.0	14.4	-1.39	15.4	13.6	1.82
Andrew Nembhard	72	74	-0.43	-0.06	-0.37	-0.23	-7	2	-9	13.0	13.9	-0.91	15.5	13.8	1.68
Tyrese Haliburton	86	89	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.34	-11	6	-17	12.9	14.8	-1.89	14.6	16.1	-1.51
T.J. McConnell	52	52	-0.99	0.49	-1.48	-0.75	-8	3	-11	13.6	13.2	0.39	15.3	14.6	0.64

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jayson Tatum	87	85	0.45	-0.45	0.90	0.01	15	-15	30	14.7	15.8	-1.10	13.8	12.5	1.30
Derrick White	79	77	0.19	-0.19	0.38	-0.01	7	-7	14	15.2	13.9	1.28	13.5	14.2	-0.69
Luke Kornet	29	29	0.11	-0.11	0.23	0.05	2	-2	4	15.6	14.6	1.01	12.3	14.2	-1.82
Jrue Holiday	91	90	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.06	2	-2	4	14.8	15.7	-0.97	13.9	11.6	2.27
Jaylen Brown	85	84	-0.07	0.07	-0.13	-0.04	-1	1	-2	14.3	17.7	-3.41	13.3	15.2	-1.92
Al Horford	73	71	-0.11	0.11	-0.23	-0.05	-2	2	-4	14.6	15.6	-1.01	14.2	12.3	1.82
Sam Hauser	19	19	-0.24	0.24	-0.48	-0.01	-8	8	-16	14.2	15.0	-0.80	13.6	13.7	-0.08
Payton Pritchard	47	45	-0.33	0.33	-0.67	0.11	-15	15	-30	16.2	13.7	2.42	13.7	13.6	0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.61,0.77,0.8,0.91,0.92,0.84,0.68,0.54,0.43,0.57,0.72,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.16,0.09,0.54,0.55,0.29,0.68,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 90, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.75,0.54,0.57,0.67,0.76,0.63,0.41,0.46,0.33,0.25,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.46,0.61,0.72,0.78,0.83,1	88.9%
OKC 89, MEM 90	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.68,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.52,0.52,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.38,0.28,0.11,0.02,0.54,0.55,0.36,0.67,0.84,1	88.5%
BOS 104, CLE 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.49,0.38,0.51,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.22,0.17,0.54,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.91,1	87.5%