NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	112		Excitement	4.9 [812]		MVP	Aaron Gordon (DEN): +21.2%
Los Angeles Lakers	105		Comeback	2.9 [348]		LVP	D'Angelo Russell (LAL): -12.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Gordon	0.21	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.14	0.11	0.04	18	69%	0.25	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.03	13	73%	0.18	3	-0.05	7	86%	0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.02	-0.03	16	59%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	45%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Peyton Watson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	21	46%	0.07	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	7	36%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.02	0.03	23	62%	0.19	2	-0.07	7	71%	-0.02
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	20	62%	0.14	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Austin Reaves	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.10	-0.02	0.10	17	58%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.03	7	0%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	2.8	26.7	15.6	26.3	2.8	35.0	138.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +30.8%

DEN +8.8%

DEN +12.7%

LAL -3.2%

DEN +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	15.5	13.9	14.5	115.5	106.1	113.9
season	15.0	14.1		116.2	114.4
opponent	14.3	14.6		114.3	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.8	16.0	14.2	15.8	15.5
LAL	13.6	15.3	15.8	11.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	84	87	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.35	3	4	-1	15.1	17.5	-2.32	13.6	16.7	-3.09
Jamal Murray	82	85	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.23	7	0	7	15.4	16.0	-0.65	13.6	16.2	-2.64
Nikola Jokic	81	81	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	3	1	15.3	16.0	-0.65	13.6	15.4	-1.83
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	74	75	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.33	2	5	-3	15.3	15.9	-0.55	13.0	16.9	-3.86
Michael Porter Jr.	73	75	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	5	-3	14.9	17.1	-2.17	13.4	15.7	-2.27
Peyton Watson	30	31	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.00	9	-2	11	16.7	14.9	1.80	15.9	13.0	2.89
Christian Braun	32	32	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.01	6	1	5	16.7	14.8	1.84	16.5	12.7	3.72
Reggie Jackson	15	14	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.07	0	7	-7	16.0	15.4	0.65	16.2	13.6	2.64
Justin Holiday	14	15	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.08	2	5	-3	15.9	15.4	0.56	15.9	13.6	2.26

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Dinwiddie	44	43	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.20	3	-10	13	13.7	14.1	-0.44	15.5	15.4	0.02
Gabe Vincent	41	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.20	0	-7	7	14.1	13.8	0.34	15.3	15.6	-0.33
D'Angelo Russell	51	50	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	-1	-5	14.5	13.4	1.12	15.5	15.4	0.01
Taurean Prince	42	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-3	-1	13.4	14.4	-1.03	15.5	15.4	0.10
Rui Hachimura	55	55	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	5	-17	15.4	12.2	3.22	15.6	15.2	0.42
Austin Reaves	85	84	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-3	-1	13.4	17.5	-4.14	15.9	12.8	3.01
Anthony Davis	89	87	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-3	-1	13.6	17.4	-3.84	15.1	18.7	-3.62
LeBron James	88	86	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	1	-9	14.0	13.5	0.56	15.4	16.1	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.43,0.55,0.48,0.33,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.29,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 106, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
BOS 89, BKN 81	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.13,0.15,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0,0	94.2%
BKN 130, LAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.76,0.67,0.78,0.69,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.29,0.42,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%