NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	8.2 [308]		MVP	Jalen Brunson (NYK): +40.1%
New York Knicks	111		Comeback	3.7 [559]		LVP	Kevin Love (MIA): -17.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gabe Vincent	0.33	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.33	0.11	0.21	-0.01	17	57%	0.33	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Caleb Martin	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.15	0.08	0.01	15	69%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Max Strus	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.09	0.01	12	71%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	0.01	10	56%	0.12	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.02
Haywood Highsmith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	3	71%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	9	33%	-0.06	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.08	0.03	9	36%	-0.13	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.33,0.28,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.20	0.22	0.01	19	71%	0.46	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Josh Hart	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.21	0.21	0.01	0.20	-0.00	11	48%	0.24	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.01
Julius Randle	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.02	-0.02	18	60%	0.13	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	60%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
RJ Barrett	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.01	0.03	17	62%	0.11	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.02
Quentin Grimes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	43%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mitchell Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	3.5	33.4	16.4	25.6	3.4	43.4	152.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +17.0%

NYK +7.9%

NYK +32.4%

MIA -8.8%

NYK +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	16.9	15.5	14.4	119.3	123.3	113.4
season	15.1	15.1		111.9	115.6
opponent	14.4	14.6		112.9	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	17.8	18.9	15.3	16.9
NYK	14.7	15.0	17.1	15.4	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cody Zeller	13	15	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.06	4	-10	14	16.9	16.9	0.02	13.2	15.9	-2.72
Duncan Robinson	37	40	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.11	7	-13	20	17.4	16.5	0.90	14.1	16.5	-2.42
Haywood Highsmith	29	30	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-3	0	18.2	16.3	1.94	14.0	16.2	-2.25
Kevin Love	43	44	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.16	-3	-3	0	16.3	17.4	-1.10	16.2	14.7	1.49
Max Strus	48	48	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-1	-4	16.3	17.6	-1.27	15.3	15.7	-0.37
Gabe Vincent	75	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.32	0	-6	6	16.3	20.2	-3.81	15.9	13.4	2.50
Kyle Lowry	57	60	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.38	-7	1	-8	17.3	16.1	1.20	14.8	16.9	-2.10
Caleb Martin	68	67	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.22	-14	8	-22	17.2	15.7	1.50	16.6	12.1	4.48
Bam Adebayo	70	70	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.40	-9	3	-12	16.8	17.5	-0.74	16.1	13.3	2.79

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Hart	60	60	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.39	16	-10	26	15.8	14.7	1.10	16.3	18.1	-1.81
Julius Randle	70	68	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.37	14	-8	22	15.9	13.9	2.01	16.5	18.3	-1.80
Jalen Brunson	74	72	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.37	12	-6	18	15.7	14.2	1.56	16.8	17.4	-0.65
Quentin Grimes	50	48	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	3	0	14.4	16.8	-2.35	17.2	16.5	0.70
Mitchell Robinson	40	40	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	2	2	15.3	15.6	-0.26	15.8	17.9	-2.08
Isaiah Hartenstein	47	46	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	6	-6	16.0	14.9	1.03	17.8	16.0	1.83
Immanuel Quickley	18	17	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.04	-6	12	-18	14.9	15.6	-0.65	17.1	16.9	0.26
RJ Barrett	71	69	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.11	-5	11	-16	15.5	15.4	0.12	17.3	15.4	1.96
Obi Toppin	20	20	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.04	-8	14	-22	13.9	15.9	-2.01	18.3	16.5	1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.46,0.34,0.68,0.79,0.77,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 82, CHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.32,0.31,0.54,0.46,0.69,0.78,0.57,0.74,1	91.9%
UTA 99, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.99,1	91.7%
SAS 93, POR 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.32,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.57,0.57,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.69,0.92,1	91.7%