NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	97		Excitement	5.1 [839]		MVP	Zach Collins (POR): +7.1%
Denver Nuggets	90		Comeback	1.3 [468]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -13.7%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Collins	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Hood	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	11	58%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Enes Kanter	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	10	60%	0.09	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Maurice Harkless	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	20	48%	0.08	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	9	48%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Seth Curry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jake Layman	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	-0.04	17	37%	-0.01	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	11	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.07
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	14	48%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	8	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	12	43%	-0.03	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	0.03	18	41%	-0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.04	0.03	17	42%	-0.08	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.3	27.5	15.6	33.0	2.8	43.2	150.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +57.0%

POR +2.5%

DEN -13.8%

DEN -3.8%

POR +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	15.2	15.3	14.3	101.0	96.8	109.3
season	14.9	14.8		112.6	112.0
opponent	14.6	13.9		108.1	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.9	15.0	13.7	16.1	15.2
DEN	16.9	15.0	14.5	15.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ McCollum	83	81	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	-4	15	14.7	18.0	-3.29	15.6	13.3	2.28
Enes Kanter	66	62	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	1	5	14.9	15.7	-0.79	15.3	15.4	-0.05
Rodney Hood	52	52	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	3	1	15.3	15.0	0.29	15.5	15.1	0.40
Damian Lillard	79	76	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.25	4	3	1	15.0	16.0	-1.03	14.7	18.3	-3.64
Al-Farouq Aminu	60	58	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.11	7	0	7	15.1	15.3	-0.24	15.7	14.7	0.98
Evan Turner	39	37	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.11	5	2	3	14.6	15.6	-1.00	14.4	16.0	-1.61
Maurice Harkless	25	22	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.03	9	-2	11	16.5	14.7	1.84	17.5	14.6	2.85
Zach Collins	31	32	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.18	-2	9	-11	16.2	14.7	1.48	16.0	15.0	1.03
Seth Curry	33	32	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.16	-4	11	-15	15.8	14.8	1.01	14.6	15.7	-1.16
Jake Layman	12	13	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.06	-5	12	-17	15.3	15.1	0.20	14.4	15.5	-1.09

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Torrey Craig	41	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.04	-3	-4	1	14.6	15.9	-1.36	15.1	15.2	-0.01
Monte Morris	38	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.26	3	-10	13	14.9	15.6	-0.63	14.0	16.0	-1.98
Will Barton	35	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-5	3	15.0	15.5	-0.56	14.6	15.5	-0.87
Mason Plumlee	26	24	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.02	-8	1	-9	15.7	15.2	0.46	14.7	15.3	-0.60
Malik Beasley	52	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-2	-3	15.4	15.3	0.10	15.1	15.2	-0.14
Nikola Jokic	70	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-9	11	15.4	15.1	0.26	15.5	14.1	1.38
Jamal Murray	66	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	-1	-5	16.0	13.8	2.18	16.1	12.9	3.19
Paul Millsap	60	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.14	-8	1	-9	15.4	15.2	0.22	15.3	14.9	0.42
Gary Harris	77	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.26	-8	1	-9	15.3	15.6	-0.29	15.0	16.4	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.04,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 119, DEN 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
UTA 109, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
TOR 106, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%