NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	113		Excitement	6.5 [553]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +24.9%
Boston Celtics	101		Comeback	2.4 [395]		LVP	Kyrie Irving (BOS): -13.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.26	0.05	0.07	22	72%	0.27	2	-0.03	10	70%	-0.03
George Hill	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.00	11	62%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pat Connaughton	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	7	53%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Brook Lopez	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.01	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Frazier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	12	48%	0.03	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
Nikola Mirotic	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	10	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	19	32%	-0.08	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.00	-0.04	11	62%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	0.00	0.04	16	61%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	14	52%	0.09	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.09	-0.02	0.04	10	58%	0.03	0	0.00	11	64%	-0.04
Aron Baynes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	7	21%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.03	0.03	22	43%	-0.03	4	-0.11	9	89%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.7	31.4	15.6	31.4	2.8	30.2	142.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +33.1%

BOS -8.6%

MIL +8.9%

MIL +15.7%

MIL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	14.3	13.2	14.3	107.6	96.2	109.3
season	13.5	13.9		112.4	109.9
opponent	14.7	14.3		106.3	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.9	13.4	13.2	15.6	14.3
BOS	12.8	13.8	13.5	12.6	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Connaughton	72	71	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.13	22	-10	32	14.2	14.7	-0.47	13.0	13.8	-0.81
George Hill	57	58	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-3	18	14.3	14.5	-0.21	13.3	13.3	-0.09
Ersan Ilyasova	40	38	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.15	10	2	8	13.6	14.9	-1.25	12.8	13.6	-0.76
Sterling Brown	19	21	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.10	11	1	10	13.7	14.5	-0.80	13.3	13.3	0.04
Brook Lopez	64	62	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	7	-2	14.9	13.6	1.25	13.2	13.4	-0.18
Giannis Antetokounmpo	73	75	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	8	-4	14.4	14.5	-0.08	13.6	12.5	1.13
Nikola Mirotic	52	56	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	11	-10	13.8	15.0	-1.13	13.7	12.9	0.82
Khris Middleton	81	79	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	12	-12	15.0	12.3	2.63	13.1	13.8	-0.66
Tony Snell	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	15	-18	14.0	14.4	-0.40	5.0	13.4	-8.38
Tim Frazier	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	15	-18	14.0	14.4	-0.40	5.0	13.4	-8.38
Eric Bledsoe	60	58	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.13	-2	14	-16	14.6	14.1	0.53	13.8	12.7	1.04

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	14	14	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.10	6	-18	24	11.8	13.5	-1.75	17.1	14.0	3.09
Jayson Tatum	77	75	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.05	2	-14	16	13.1	13.8	-0.65	14.8	13.3	1.50
Semi Ojeleye	1	1	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	-9	6	0.0	13.4	-13.43	6.0	14.5	-8.48
Marcus Morris	74	76	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.13	3	-15	18	13.0	14.0	-0.99	14.7	13.4	1.32
Jaylen Brown	65	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.06	-13	1	-14	13.9	12.2	1.71	14.2	14.7	-0.46
Terry Rozier	22	22	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.05	-11	-1	-10	13.7	13.2	0.54	15.3	14.1	1.17
Kyrie Irving	95	95	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.20	-6	-6	0	13.2	14.4	-1.25	14.2	16.3	-2.12
Gordon Hayward	56	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.13	-11	-1	-10	13.2	13.4	-0.10	14.4	14.4	0.04
Marcus Smart	32	33	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.08	-13	1	-14	13.2	13.4	-0.20	13.6	14.8	-1.15
Al Horford	84	84	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	2	-16	13.7	11.5	2.16	13.7	17.1	-3.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.44,0.3,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.06,0.15,0.14,0.05,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 107, SAS 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.37,0.26,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.4%
CHA 95, BOS 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.6%
CLE 108, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.38,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.26,0.15,0.12,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.0%