NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	105		Excitement	6.3 [591]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +48.1%
Boston Celtics	115		Comeback	2.4 [688]		LVP	Marcin Gortat (WAS): -13.8%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0.48	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48	0.24	0.23	-0.02	22	70%	0.52	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.02
Otto Porter Jr.	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.03	10	71%	0.14	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.04
Bojan Bogdanovic	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tomas Satoransky	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sheldon McClellan	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Markieff Morris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.02	0.02	14	60%	0.07	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
John Wall	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	23	37%	-0.04	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Marcin Gortat	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.03	0.02	6	40%	-0.03	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.20	0.12	-0.01	14	79%	0.36	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.09	0.09	-0.02	21	57%	0.26	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.03
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.08	0.01	7	72%	0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	5	75%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.00	10	65%	0.12	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.05
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	12	58%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Young	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.0	36.2	17.5	25.6	3.4	33.5	146.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +38.6%

BOS +2.0%

WAS -13.5%

BOS +19.6%

BOS +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	BOS	NBA	WAS	BOS	NBA
this game	15.1	15.4	14.8	110.5	122.3	107.7
season	14.4	14.7		109.9	110.1
opponent	14.9	14.9		108.3	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.1	13.0	18.0	15.6	15.1
BOS	14.7	14.2	15.4	17.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcin Gortat	63	62	0.07	-0.56	0.63	-0.14	7	-17	24	15.3	14.6	0.64	15.9	14.5	1.40
Brandon Jennings	12	12	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-12	14	13.5	15.3	-1.78	16.0	15.3	0.66
Tomas Satoransky	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-10	10	8.0	15.1	-7.13	0.0	15.6	-15.59
Sheldon McClellan	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-10	10	8.0	15.1	-7.13	0.0	15.6	-15.59
Kelly Oubre Jr.	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	1.0	15.2	-14.20	5.0	15.5	-10.54
Otto Porter Jr.	77	77	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-13	16	14.8	16.0	-1.17	15.7	14.0	1.74
Markieff Morris	82	83	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.16	2	-12	14	14.8	16.5	-1.63	15.4	15.5	-0.03
Jason Smith	8	7	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.04	-13	3	-16	15.2	15.0	0.22	12.4	15.7	-3.24
Ian Mahinmi	22	21	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	0	-10	14.5	15.2	-0.72	15.4	15.4	-0.06
Bradley Beal	91	89	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	1	-12	15.2	11.2	3.97	15.5	13.8	1.72
John Wall	85	85	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	1	-12	15.3	12.6	2.74	15.6	14.2	1.33
Bojan Bogdanovic	33	32	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.03	-19	9	-28	15.8	14.6	1.17	14.6	15.9	-1.26

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Smart	55	56	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-4	18	16.0	14.6	1.47	15.5	14.4	1.13
Al Horford	76	76	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.09	14	-4	18	15.6	14.9	0.66	15.6	12.9	2.63
Kelly Olynyk	54	56	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	7	-4	16.0	14.7	1.26	14.6	15.7	-1.09
Jaylen Brown	38	39	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	0	10	14.9	15.8	-0.85	15.7	14.6	1.04
Isaiah Thomas	81	78	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.19	8	2	6	15.8	13.3	2.46	14.5	17.8	-3.30
Avery Bradley	71	73	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	6	-2	15.6	15.0	0.56	15.2	14.7	0.48
Terry Rozier	10	10	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	10	-10	12.5	15.8	-3.27	13.7	15.2	-1.51
James Young	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	10	-10	0.0	15.6	-15.59	8.0	15.1	-7.13
Jae Crowder	65	65	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	11	-12	14.8	16.9	-2.08	15.0	15.1	-0.12
Amir Johnson	19	21	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.06	-2	12	-14	15.2	15.5	-0.27	14.9	15.1	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.6,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.6,0.74,0.82,0.94,0.89,0.81,0.86,0.76,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 89, MIA 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.4%
ATL 88, TOR 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.66,0.82,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.96,0.9,0.92,1	93.3%
POR 83, OKC 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.81,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.0%