NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	97		Excitement	5.1 [809]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +16.9%
Toronto Raptors	83		Comeback	2.5 [178]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -12.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.18	0.03	0.05	18	68%	0.20	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.02
Malcolm Brogdon	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	13	62%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.04	-0.02	9	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Thon Maker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	100%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	11	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	11	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Spencer Hawes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashad Vaughn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mirza Teletovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	15	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.04	-0.03	7	44%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.02	-0.02	21	48%	0.07	1	-0.04	14	93%	0.07
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.01	0.04	14	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	62%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	53%	0.03	1	-0.04	7	71%	-0.02
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	56%	0.02	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.05
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	5	30%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	11	17%	-0.09	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.8	28.9	16.8	29.3	2.7	33.3	139.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +44.9%

TOR -9.6%

TOR -2.1%

MIL +16.6%

MIL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	17.3	15.6	14.8	111.5	94.3	107.7
season	14.9	15.2		107.4	110.0
opponent	14.9	15.3		106.9	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.4	19.3	15.0	17.7	17.3
TOR	16.1	15.0	16.3	15.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Khris Middleton	74	75	0.73	-0.23	0.95	-0.07	27	-13	40	17.4	16.5	0.98	15.7	15.2	0.46
Tony Snell	45	45	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.00	16	-2	18	16.2	18.5	-2.32	16.2	15.0	1.22
Greg Monroe	45	47	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.02	15	-1	16	18.2	16.4	1.82	15.2	16.1	-0.98
Malcolm Brogdon	61	62	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.11	17	-3	20	17.7	16.4	1.30	15.9	15.0	0.89
Matthew Dellavedova	54	57	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.09	6	8	-2	18.1	16.0	2.14	15.2	16.5	-1.33
Giannis Antetokounmpo	69	70	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.08	10	4	6	17.4	16.8	0.66	15.7	15.2	0.51
Thon Maker	31	29	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	11	-8	14.8	18.7	-3.92	16.7	15.1	1.54
Jason Terry	19	19	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	18	-22	15.2	17.9	-2.67	14.7	15.9	-1.13
Rashad Vaughn	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	18	-22	13.7	17.5	-3.72	15.7	15.6	0.04
Michael Beasley	11	10	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.13	-6	20	-26	18.3	17.2	1.11	13.4	15.9	-2.51
Mirza Teletovic	11	11	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.08	-6	20	-26	17.8	17.2	0.59	16.5	15.5	1.05
Spencer Hawes	11	12	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.00	-4	18	-22	20.8	16.8	4.03	14.9	15.7	-0.82

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Tucker	52	51	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-15	16	15.2	16.2	-1.01	18.6	15.4	3.26
Delon Wright	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	15.7	15.6	0.04	13.7	17.5	-3.72
Jakob Poeltl	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	15.7	15.6	0.04	13.7	17.5	-3.72
Fred VanVleet	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	15.7	15.6	0.04	13.7	17.5	-3.72
Lucas Nogueira	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	15.7	15.6	0.04	11.7	17.5	-5.83
Norman Powell	10	10	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.03	-2	-12	10	15.6	15.6	-0.03	18.8	17.1	1.70
Cory Joseph	50	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-15	16	14.4	17.3	-2.93	17.4	17.2	0.20
Patrick Patterson	30	31	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-11	8	14.3	16.3	-2.06	17.3	17.3	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	64	62	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.17	-16	2	-18	16.3	13.7	2.58	17.7	16.3	1.37
DeMar DeRozan	70	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.10	-16	2	-18	15.8	14.9	0.93	17.9	15.1	2.87
DeMarre Carroll	44	43	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	1	-16	16.2	15.0	1.25	16.8	17.8	-1.05
Jonas Valanciunas	45	44	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.06	-14	0	-14	15.4	15.8	-0.37	16.3	18.3	-2.08
Kyle Lowry	63	62	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	0.10	-22	8	-30	16.4	13.7	2.66	16.9	18.4	-1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.6,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.48,0.37,0.48,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 96, POR 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.9%
MIA 97, MEM 78	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.68,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.19,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.8%
TOR 112, PHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.63,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.22,0.09,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.8%