NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	5.2 [786]		MVP	Antoine Walker (MIA): +19.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	78		Comeback	2.1 [313]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -11.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.17	0.04	0.01	17	71%	0.23	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.01	6	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.03	4	50%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Earl Barron	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Walsh	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	0.02	-0.02	14	39%	0.04	3	-0.10	3	0%	-0.05
Gary Payton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	3	40%	0.01	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	6	37%	-0.05	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	18	53%	0.05	7	-0.16	7	71%	-0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.01	-0.05	23	49%	0.13	1	-0.04	7	57%	-0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	7	44%	0.03	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Antonio Burks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lawrence Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	67%	0.05	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	3	44%	-0.03	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	7	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	17	41%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	-0.01	-0.07	8	11%	-0.07	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	0.04	13	36%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.7	28.9	15.7	26.1	2.5	29.5	128.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.5%

MIA +8.6%

MIA +3.5%

MEM -11.5%

MEM -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MEM	NBA	MIA	MEM	NBA
this game	14.5	15.8	15.6	102.1	82.1	104.4
season	15.5	17.1		106.1	103.5
opponent	15.7	15.5		100.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.3	14.8	15.0	15.1	14.5
MEM	18.0	12.4	17.7	15.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	82	82	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.08	15	4	11	14.4	15.6	-1.25	15.9	14.9	0.99
Shaquille O'Neal	54	55	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.00	16	3	13	13.3	16.2	-2.92	17.1	13.9	3.25
Dwyane Wade	78	79	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.06	15	4	11	14.4	15.0	-0.56	16.1	14.4	1.61
Gary Payton	59	59	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.03	11	8	3	14.2	15.2	-1.01	14.6	17.7	-3.13
Jason Kapono	41	39	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	8	3	15.1	14.1	1.03	14.9	16.4	-1.54
Jason Williams	63	65	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.00	9	10	-1	14.6	14.5	0.10	16.0	15.2	0.85
Udonis Haslem	46	48	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.17	11	8	3	14.8	14.3	0.56	17.5	14.0	3.56
Alonzo Mourning	37	37	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	17	-15	16.3	13.4	2.84	14.1	16.9	-2.78
Earl Barron	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	18	-17	15.5	14.5	1.01	11.7	15.9	-4.25
Dorell Wright	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	18	-17	15.5	14.5	1.01	11.7	15.9	-4.25
Matt Walsh	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	17	-15	13.7	14.6	-0.90	13.5	15.8	-2.33
Wayne Simien	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	18	-17	15.5	14.5	1.01	11.7	15.9	-4.25

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jake Tsakalidis	20	22	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-20	21	11.9	16.8	-4.91	15.4	14.3	1.14
Antonio Burks	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-18	17	11.7	15.9	-4.25	15.5	14.5	1.01
Hakim Warrick	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-18	17	11.7	15.9	-4.25	15.5	14.5	1.01
Lawrence Roberts	15	15	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-16	13	13.5	16.2	-2.75	16.9	14.1	2.85
Damon Stoudamire	64	63	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.08	-10	-9	-1	16.5	14.2	2.31	15.1	13.4	1.70
Mike Miller	54	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.01	-8	-11	3	14.5	17.5	-2.96	14.3	14.9	-0.57
Lorenzen Wright	46	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.12	-13	-6	-7	17.8	13.9	3.97	14.2	14.9	-0.70
Eddie Jones	60	61	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	-7	-5	17.0	13.7	3.36	14.7	14.2	0.52
Dahntay Jones	23	23	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	-9	-1	14.3	16.2	-1.95	15.7	14.2	1.53
Bobby Jackson	33	33	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.05	-10	-9	-1	14.8	16.3	-1.52	12.8	15.4	-2.59
Shane Battier	72	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.04	-12	-7	-5	16.2	14.5	1.66	13.7	17.1	-3.41
Pau Gasol	82	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.02	-16	-3	-13	16.1	13.7	2.42	14.7	13.9	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.68,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.19,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 96, CLE 81	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%
MEM 105, LAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0	94.1%
BKN 90, MIL 82	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.29,0.26,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0	94.1%