NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	103		Excitement	7.4 [379]		MVP	Isaiah Thomas (BOS): +41.6%
Boston Celtics	111		Comeback	1.3 [855]		LVP	Jae Crowder (BOS): -14.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.11,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.14	0.10	0.02	10	85%	0.27	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.06	0.12	-0.01	14	61%	0.24	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.00
Mike Scott	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	3	100%	0.14	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	19	49%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.08,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	17	53%	0.09	4	-0.11	9	100%	0.04
Mike Muscala	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Al Horford	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	10	40%	-0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	9	40%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.42	0.42	0.26	0.17	0.02	24	67%	0.44	1	-0.02	15	87%	0.03
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.12	-0.01	8	83%	0.24	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.00	2	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	12	46%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	6	69%	0.18	4	-0.15	4	75%	-0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.05	-0.03	14	50%	0.18	5	-0.15	6	67%	0.01
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
RJ Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.03	-0.02	11	15%	-0.15	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.4	3.5	28.2	15.8	31.1	2.6	41.2	153.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +33.3%

BOS +16.8%

BOS +4.6%

ATL -2.0%

ATL -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	BOS	NBA	ATL	BOS	NBA
this game	13.6	15.5	14.9	104.0	112.1	105.1
season	14.2	13.9		104.1	104.5
opponent	15.0	15.1		101.9	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.1	13.9	14.8	11.9	13.6
BOS	13.6	16.8	17.2	14.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Scott	40	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.22	6	-14	20	13.9	13.4	0.48	16.7	14.6	2.09
Thabo Sefolosha	39	40	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.09	0	-8	8	13.7	13.6	0.18	15.9	15.2	0.71
Mike Muscala	8	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.06	-6	-2	-4	14.6	13.5	1.08	9.4	15.9	-6.48
Dennis Schroder	44	44	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-9	10	14.3	13.1	1.15	16.7	14.5	2.17
Tim Hardaway Jr.	9	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.10	-8	0	-8	16.0	13.4	2.60	12.0	15.8	-3.76
Kirk Hinrich	5	4	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-4	0	13.8	13.6	0.17	13.7	15.5	-1.78
Kyle Korver	59	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-5	2	13.4	13.9	-0.48	15.9	14.8	1.04
Paul Millsap	75	77	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-4	0	13.6	13.7	-0.15	15.6	15.1	0.47
Kent Bazemore	74	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-6	4	13.4	14.5	-1.13	15.2	16.2	-1.00
Jeff Teague	67	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.26	-8	0	-8	13.3	14.3	-1.00	14.9	16.7	-1.87
Al Horford	75	74	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.18	-12	4	-16	13.4	14.3	-0.92	15.2	16.1	-0.84

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	75	76	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.23	14	-6	20	15.5	15.4	0.05	13.6	13.6	0.04
Evan Turner	72	70	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.31	11	-3	14	15.4	15.7	-0.29	13.4	14.3	-0.90
Marcus Smart	67	69	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.28	7	1	6	15.3	15.7	-0.34	13.4	14.2	-0.76
Isaiah Thomas	77	77	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	5	-2	15.0	16.9	-1.87	13.5	14.3	-0.82
Amir Johnson	62	61	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	3	2	16.5	13.8	2.67	13.6	13.6	0.01
Jae Crowder	71	69	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	4	0	15.2	16.1	-0.96	13.7	13.6	0.10
RJ Hunter	16	17	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.11	7	1	6	12.7	16.0	-3.30	14.6	13.4	1.15
Jared Sullinger	23	25	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.08	-3	11	-14	14.0	15.9	-1.89	14.3	13.4	0.86
Terry Rozier	32	31	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.06	-8	16	-24	17.9	14.3	3.67	14.1	13.4	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.82,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.79,0.69,0.63,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.52,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 107, DEN 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.75,0.66,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.53,0.58,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.95,0.95,0.92,1	92.6%
PHX 103, LAC 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.9,0.97,0.97,1,0.98,1	92.5%
UTA 82, PHX 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.83,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	92.1%