NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	107		Excitement	6.5 [510]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): +29.9%
Denver Nuggets	108		Comeback	1.7 [810]		LVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): -34.9%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Xavier Henry	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13	0.12	0.03	0.02	12	71%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	6	83%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01	0.06	-0.01	0.05	17	56%	0.02	1	-0.01	9	67%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0,0	0.10	-0.01	0.09	12	73%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Sam Young	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	5	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Hasheem Thabeet	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	4	37%	-0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	-0.35	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.32,-0.32,-0.35,-0.34,-0.35,-0.35	-0.17	-0.18	0.00	21	40%	-0.13	6	-0.22	3	67%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.18,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.3	0.30	0.19	0.12	0.02	14	78%	0.30	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Nene	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.29	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.01	13	79%	0.32	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.07	-0.02	8	50%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	61%	0.05	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	-0.04	8	26%	0.02	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	9	39%	0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.19	-0.05	-0.06	20	27%	-0.16	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.7	28.2	15.6	26.0	1.8	36.2	139.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +28.7%

DEN +16.4%

DEN +3.5%

DEN +3.2%

MEM -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DEN	NBA	MEM	DEN	NBA
this game	15.3	14.2	15.5	110.3	110.2	105.7
season	15.5	14.3		106.1	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.1	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.3	17.6	15.4	13.5	15.3
DEN	12.4	16.0	15.9	13.2	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Arthur	35	34	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-4	7	14.2	15.9	-1.72	12.3	15.3	-3.03
Tony Allen	9	10	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-4	7	19.2	14.9	4.32	15.0	14.2	0.84
Xavier Henry	54	55	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.28	10	-11	21	14.5	16.3	-1.72	15.1	13.1	2.05
Mike Conley	79	81	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.39	7	-8	15	15.6	14.1	1.46	15.1	10.1	4.99
Marc Gasol	46	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	0	-1	17.0	13.8	3.19	16.7	12.2	4.48
Rudy Gay	80	81	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.53	9	-10	19	15.2	15.8	-0.56	14.3	14.1	0.23
Hasheem Thabeet	19	20	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.15	-15	14	-29	13.9	15.6	-1.75	12.3	14.7	-2.44
Sam Young	37	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	6	-13	15.1	15.4	-0.31	13.1	14.9	-1.80
Greivis Vasquez	18	17	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-8	7	-15	14.1	15.6	-1.46	10.1	15.1	-4.99
Zach Randolph	71	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.50	2	-3	5	15.9	13.7	2.14	15.3	10.9	4.46
O.J. Mayo	37	38	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.29	-8	7	-15	14.4	15.8	-1.40	11.5	16.0	-4.44

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	78	77	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.45	7	-6	13	14.0	15.2	-1.20	15.1	15.9	-0.82
Arron Afflalo	73	72	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.44	7	-6	13	14.0	14.9	-0.85	15.0	16.2	-1.16
Ty Lawson	33	32	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.31	7	-6	13	14.6	14.1	0.50	17.4	14.3	3.10
Al Harrington	55	56	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.31	6	-5	11	14.2	14.3	-0.02	15.3	15.2	0.10
Chauncey Billups	70	68	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.28	-1	2	-3	14.4	13.9	0.44	14.5	17.1	-2.62
Carmelo Anthony	63	63	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	3	-5	14.6	13.5	1.09	14.4	17.0	-2.62
Melvin Ely	14	13	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.08	-1	2	-3	15.7	14.0	1.71	17.5	15.0	2.50
J.R. Smith	38	39	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.13	-3	4	-7	13.7	14.6	-0.92	15.8	14.9	0.87
Gary Forbes	21	20	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.31	-10	11	-21	12.4	14.8	-2.37	15.8	15.2	0.69
Shelden Williams	45	45	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.06	-5	6	-11	14.9	13.7	1.27	15.7	15.0	0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.75,0.66,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.53,0.58,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.95,0.95,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 82, PHX 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.83,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
ATL 103, BOS 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.82,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.79,0.69,0.63,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.52,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.98,1	92.6%
PHX 103, LAC 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.9,0.97,0.97,1,0.98,1	91.4%