NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	94		Excitement	8.3 [203]		MVP	DeMarre Carroll (ATL): +35.5%
Washington Wizards	91		Comeback	2.0 [446]		LVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): -33.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarre Carroll	0.35	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.35	0.16	0.20	0.01	14	76%	0.43	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Mike Muscala	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.03	-0.00	13	71%	0.19	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.02
Kent Bazemore	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.04	-0.00	20	43%	0.05	3	-0.07	7	71%	-0.00
Al Horford	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.00	9	65%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Pero Antic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	12	35%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Korver	-0.33	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.31,-0.33	-0.15	-0.19	-0.00	8	12%	-0.22	3	-0.11	1	0%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.09	0.01	24	56%	0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Kevin Seraphin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	11	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	9	35%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	7	25%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21	-0.21	-0.06	-0.16	-0.00	7	28%	-0.21	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.13
John Wall	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.27,-0.31	-0.31	-0.15	-0.18	-0.01	21	41%	-0.15	6	-0.16	7	86%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	3.0	27.0	16.6	27.4	3.3	43.3	144.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +78.7%

ATL +1.4%

WAS -24.0%

WAS -12.2%

ATL +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	15.3	14.7	15.1	97.9	94.8	104.2
season	14.9	15.1		106.7	102.9
opponent	15.3	15.4		101.7	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.7	15.3	15.3	13.9	15.3
WAS	16.0	17.4	12.9	13.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Korver	78	79	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.24	16	-13	29	15.2	15.6	-0.43	14.6	15.4	-0.75
Al Horford	78	79	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.25	14	-11	25	14.6	17.9	-3.30	15.0	13.4	1.69
Jeff Teague	68	69	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.11	16	-13	29	15.8	13.9	1.88	15.7	12.4	3.30
Paul Millsap	81	81	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.36	5	-2	7	15.4	14.3	1.18	14.7	15.1	-0.47
DeMarre Carroll	76	74	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.41	0	3	-3	15.3	15.0	0.33	14.8	14.7	0.07
Kent Bazemore	21	19	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.35	-12	15	-27	14.2	15.6	-1.37	13.7	15.0	-1.25
Mike Muscala	22	22	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.13	-5	8	-13	16.3	14.9	1.37	13.7	15.0	-1.31
Pero Antic	11	10	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.08	-8	11	-19	16.2	15.1	1.04	15.2	14.7	0.51
Dennis Schroder	45	47	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.14	-11	14	-25	15.0	15.5	-0.57	14.0	15.5	-1.49

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrett Temple	1	1	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.02	1	-4	5	7.0	14.8	-7.82	1.0	15.4	-14.41
Drew Gooden	38	35	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.12	5	-8	13	15.2	14.4	0.74	16.1	14.8	1.34
Ramon Sessions	16	17	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-5	7	17.4	14.2	3.16	15.8	15.2	0.61
Kevin Seraphin	55	55	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.23	8	-11	19	15.1	14.2	0.87	15.5	14.9	0.67
Otto Porter	70	69	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.42	8	-11	19	14.5	15.5	-0.99	14.9	16.1	-1.18
Marcin Gortat	23	23	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.11	-16	13	-29	16.9	14.1	2.86	16.0	15.0	0.97
Nene	53	56	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	5	-13	13.9	15.8	-1.90	14.8	15.9	-1.05
Bradley Beal	85	85	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.42	-3	0	-3	14.7	15.0	-0.29	15.2	15.4	-0.12
John Wall	91	90	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	2	-7	14.3	22.6	-8.29	15.2	16.5	-1.32
Paul Pierce	48	49	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.32	-7	4	-11	14.4	15.1	-0.65	15.2	15.3	-0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.09,0.12,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.33,0.47,0.64,0.55,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 105, NYK 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.14,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.53,0.85,0.55,0.42,0	91.4%
MIL 78, TOR 75	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.21,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.55,0.75,0.58,0	90.9%
PHI 118, LAL 116	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.37,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.34,0.33,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.58,0	90.7%