NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	91		Excitement	5.4 [730]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +12.1%
Chicago Bulls	103		Comeback	1.4 [1070]		LVP	Michael Carter-Williams (MIL): -17.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Henson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	80%	0.13	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.05	0.10	-0.01	7	35%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.05
Jerryd Bayless	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	7	61%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jared Dudley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	13	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Khris Middleton	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.03	0.04	17	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.03	14	47%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	8	33%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.02
Michael Carter-Williams	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.05	0.01	13	30%	-0.11	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.05

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.02	-0.03	16	68%	0.20	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.00	0.02	14	69%	0.14	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.02	-0.05	9	59%	0.12	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.00	-0.07	5	50%	0.03	2	0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	7	29%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.06	5	90%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.01	-0.04	17	29%	-0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	3.3	34.5	16.7	27.3	3.4	28.5	137.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +53.6%

MIL -7.6%

CHI +4.6%

CHI +1.1%

MIL -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	13.3	15.9	15.1	91.9	105.1	104.2
season	14.5	15.5		100.5	105.4
opponent	15.2	15.7		102.5	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	11.8	14.0	13.0	14.8	13.3
CHI	16.0	14.2	15.2	18.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	47	48	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-12	12	13.3	13.4	-0.15	16.6	15.3	1.34
Jared Dudley	25	26	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-11	10	13.8	13.2	0.62	15.7	16.0	-0.36
O.J. Mayo	49	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-9	6	13.6	13.1	0.51	15.5	16.3	-0.82
Jerryd Bayless	46	48	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.05	-12	0	-12	13.8	12.9	0.84	15.5	16.3	-0.78
Michael Carter-Williams	71	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-5	-2	13.6	12.6	1.06	15.8	16.2	-0.46
Khris Middleton	71	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-10	8	12.4	15.7	-3.27	16.4	14.7	1.73
Giannis Antetokounmpo	67	64	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	-2	-8	13.5	12.9	0.63	16.5	14.8	1.68
Ersan Ilyasova	67	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.00	-13	1	-14	13.1	13.8	-0.66	15.7	16.4	-0.72
John Henson	52	50	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	0	-12	13.4	13.3	0.15	15.3	16.6	-1.34

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pau Gasol	74	74	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.06	13	-1	14	15.9	15.9	0.06	13.2	13.8	-0.68
Jimmy Butler	71	72	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.05	11	1	10	15.9	16.0	-0.06	13.2	13.7	-0.46
Mike Dunleavy	72	72	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	2	8	15.4	17.2	-1.79	13.0	14.3	-1.27
Derrick Rose	55	56	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	-1	14	15.6	16.4	-0.81	14.0	12.4	1.62
Taj Gibson	51	51	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.16	5	7	-2	15.8	16.1	-0.32	13.5	13.1	0.44
Joakim Noah	70	73	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	6	0	16.2	15.2	1.04	13.4	13.3	0.09
Aaron Brooks	40	39	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	6	0	16.0	15.8	0.18	12.3	14.0	-1.69
Nikola Mirotic	27	27	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	10	-8	16.7	15.6	1.03	14.3	13.0	1.27
Tony Snell	30	31	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.23	-6	18	-24	16.5	15.7	0.79	13.6	13.2	0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.52,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 79, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	95.3%
TOR 91, MIA 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	95.0%
UTA 97, CHI 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%