NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	107		Excitement	2.4 [1265]		MVP	Patty Mills (SAS): +5.8%
Miami Heat	86		Comeback	1.2 [446]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -12.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.01	0.06	8	87%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	90%	0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.02	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.00	-0.07	15	56%	0.06	4	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	-0.00	0.07	12	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	10	45%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	75%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	4	64%	0.04	4	-0.04	3	67%	0.01
Boris Diaw	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.13	-0.00	0.08	17	70%	0.09	3	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.14	0.00	0.14	4	137%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	11	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.16	0.00	-0.03	13	29%	-0.09	3	-0.03	8	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	3.7	32.2	18.5	31.3	3.5	34.3	150.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +39.0%

SAS +2.2%

SAS +7.8%

SAS +0.3%

SAS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	18.1	16.0	15.1	127.4	101.2	105.2
season	15.0	15.6		109.8	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.0		105.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	17.2	21.1	19.8	18.1
MIA	16.4	17.1	14.8	15.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	50	49	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.32	27	-6	33	17.5	19.1	-1.66	15.9	16.1	-0.16
Kawhi Leonard	69	69	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.24	23	-2	25	17.6	20.7	-3.09	16.0	15.8	0.19
Boris Diaw	59	59	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.06	15	6	9	19.5	14.9	4.57	17.1	13.3	3.83
Tim Duncan	54	54	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.24	21	0	21	19.2	16.2	3.00	15.8	16.2	-0.41
Tony Parker	63	63	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.13	16	5	11	18.6	16.8	1.76	15.7	16.8	-1.15
Patty Mills	27	28	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.04	7	14	-7	16.9	18.7	-1.88	17.6	15.1	2.50
Tiago Splitter	25	26	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	20	-19	15.2	19.4	-4.12	17.7	15.2	2.43
Matt Bonner	19	18	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.10	6	15	-9	14.5	19.2	-4.66	13.7	16.6	-2.84
Danny Green	32	34	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.25	-7	28	-35	19.1	17.5	1.61	17.4	15.0	2.36
Cory Joseph	6	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	19.8	18.0	1.83	11.2	16.5	-5.20
Marco Belinelli	6	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	19.8	18.0	1.83	11.6	16.4	-4.79
Jeff Ayres	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	21.0	17.9	3.05	8.8	16.4	-7.61
Aron Baynes	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	21.0	17.9	3.05	8.8	16.4	-7.61

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-22	23	8.8	16.4	-7.61	21.0	17.9	3.05
Greg Oden	3	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-22	23	8.7	16.2	-7.57	19.0	18.1	0.89
Udonis Haslem	17	17	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-21	21	16.6	15.8	0.78	19.5	17.8	1.75
Toney Douglas	13	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-21	21	11.7	16.7	-5.04	18.2	18.1	0.04
Norris Cole	29	29	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.08	0	-21	21	17.7	15.1	2.67	18.3	18.0	0.33
Shane Battier	12	12	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	-17	13	14.2	16.3	-2.09	14.9	18.7	-3.75
Chris Andersen	20	19	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.10	-9	-12	3	16.8	15.7	1.09	14.4	19.2	-4.79
Dwyane Wade	59	57	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.03	-9	-12	3	16.6	14.5	2.05	18.3	17.7	0.63
Rashard Lewis	28	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.23	-17	-4	-13	15.4	16.3	-0.91	18.6	17.9	0.66
Ray Allen	49	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.18	-18	-3	-15	17.0	14.5	2.49	18.2	18.1	0.06
Mario Chalmers	57	54	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.00	-14	-7	-7	14.9	18.0	-3.09	18.1	18.1	0.05
LeBron James	67	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.20	-21	0	-21	15.9	16.2	-0.33	17.7	20.1	-2.46
Chris Bosh	66	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	-6	-9	16.7	13.5	3.21	19.2	14.5	4.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 103, NOH 85	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.23,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%
GSW 115, HOU 80	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.17,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%
DAL 107, CHA 80	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%