NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	98		Excitement	11.0 [49]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +75.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	99		Comeback	39.2 [37]		LVP	Jeremy Lin (HOU): -32.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chandler Parsons	0.40	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.4	0.00	0.41	0.01	17	47%	0.43	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.25,0.16,0.31,0.16	0.03	0.11	-0.02	18	55%	0.24	3	-0.08	11	55%	-0.20
Terrence Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Troy Daniels	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,-0.04	0.20	-0.18	0.07	15	81%	0.05	4	-0.10	12	100%	0.06
Patrick Beverley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	2	67%	0.04	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lin	-0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.32,-0.32	-0.10	-0.22	-0.00	13	37%	-0.20	3	-0.12	4	50%	-0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.75	0.75	0.14	0.62	0.01	14	81%	1.06	4	-0.31	3	100%	0.01
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.04	0.15	-0.00	10	55%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.00	5	67%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.09	0.09	-0.04	0.14	0.01	10	45%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.05	-0.13	0.02	26	48%	-0.09	1	-0.02	10	100%	0.06
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.09	-0.17	0.00	13	40%	-0.18	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.4	35.5	18.5	31.2	2.8	38.4	157.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +64.0%

POR +4.7%

HOU -34.9%

POR +5.8%

POR +10.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	POR	NBA	HOU	POR	NBA
this game	15.3	16.7	15.1	107.7	111.2	105.2
season	14.3	15.1		109.5	109.6
opponent	14.8	15.2		106.5	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.6	14.0	17.4	17.0	15.3
POR	15.2	14.8	19.6	18.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omer Asik	59	59	0.75	-1.25	2.00	0.28	16	-17	33	15.7	14.6	1.17	17.4	15.2	2.21
Jeremy Lin	63	62	0.26	-0.76	1.03	0.35	-3	2	-5	15.3	15.3	-0.00	16.0	18.3	-2.35
Troy Daniels	18	17	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.30	-13	12	-25	14.5	15.5	-1.02	16.5	16.7	-0.21
James Harden	79	77	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-6	11	15.3	15.2	0.18	16.7	16.6	0.13
Chandler Parsons	80	79	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.53	7	-8	15	15.5	13.9	1.60	16.5	18.6	-2.14
Dwight Howard	75	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.41	-2	1	-3	15.5	14.5	0.99	16.6	17.2	-0.61
Patrick Beverley	43	43	-1.00	0.50	-1.49	-0.97	-1	0	-1	15.1	15.5	-0.34	17.8	15.7	2.12
Terrence Jones	39	35	-1.44	0.94	-2.37	-0.97	-16	15	-31	14.2	16.2	-2.04	15.9	17.2	-1.24

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	39	43	1.31	-0.81	2.12	1.11	7	-6	13	17.7	15.9	1.82	13.4	17.1	-3.69
Nicolas Batum	72	72	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.47	3	-2	5	17.0	15.4	1.59	15.6	14.3	1.33
Damian Lillard	78	82	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.47	2	-1	3	16.7	16.5	0.17	15.6	12.3	3.31
Wesley Matthews	74	77	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.30	3	-2	5	16.0	20.2	-4.21	15.8	12.6	3.25
LaMarcus Aldridge	73	74	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.36	-3	4	-7	16.5	17.5	-0.98	15.8	13.3	2.49
Thomas Robinson	30	31	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.09	5	-4	9	18.1	16.0	2.17	14.4	15.8	-1.46
Dorell Wright	4	3	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	4	-7	14.0	16.8	-2.82	4.0	15.7	-11.70
Robin Lopez	75	73	-0.74	1.24	-1.99	-0.48	-9	10	-19	16.3	18.9	-2.56	15.7	13.8	1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.71,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.73,0.69,0.37,0.55,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 117, GSW 120	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.45,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.47,0.63,0.34,0.42,1	90.4%
LAC 90, MIL 92	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.42,1	89.9%
UTA 89, CHH 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.37,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.46,0.54,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.15,1	89.9%