NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	111		Excitement	7.8 [284]		MVP	Vince Carter (DAL): +28.6%
Dallas Mavericks	113		Comeback	3.6 [252]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -14.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tiago Splitter	0.20	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.07	0.00	7	73%	0.20	0	0.00	12	92%	0.06
Tim Duncan	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	9	80%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	5	75%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Danny Green	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.14	-0.01	0.04	7	106%	0.14	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Patty Mills	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	6	83%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.00	9	55%	0.04	1	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Tony Parker	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.09,-0.16,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.04	-0.09	0.05	0.00	23	46%	0.13	5	-0.17	2	50%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	8	30%	-0.03	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.05

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.29	0.29	0.09	0.19	-0.00	6	81%	0.30	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.03
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.11	0.00	8	55%	0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.14	0.02	22	58%	0.34	5	-0.18	6	67%	-0.02
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.01	9	67%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	20	55%	0.10	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	47%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.00	10	37%	0.04	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	3.6	32.3	18.4	27.3	3.5	43.3	155.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +27.6%

DAL +2.6%

DAL +7.4%

DAL +2.1%

DAL +10.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	13.9	15.0	15.1	111.0	114.1	105.2
season	15.0	15.3		109.8	109.0
opponent	15.0	15.0		107.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.8	13.8	14.8	13.4	13.9
DAL	15.0	15.6	15.8	13.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	74	73	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.08	7	-9	16	13.4	15.6	-2.20	15.5	13.7	1.77
Jeff Ayres	5	5	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-5	8	12.2	14.0	-1.84	15.2	15.0	0.21
Matt Bonner	8	9	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.03	0	-2	2	12.7	14.1	-1.30	13.4	15.2	-1.71
Patty Mills	32	32	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-3	4	13.8	14.0	-0.25	15.2	14.9	0.37
Marco Belinelli	13	12	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.06	0	-2	2	12.9	14.1	-1.18	12.9	15.3	-2.37
Boris Diaw	47	47	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.25	0	-2	2	13.4	14.4	-1.03	15.2	14.8	0.41
Tony Parker	74	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.33	-1	-1	0	14.2	13.3	0.92	15.2	14.4	0.83
Danny Green	62	61	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.36	-1	-1	0	14.1	13.7	0.43	14.5	15.8	-1.28
Tiago Splitter	67	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.13	-10	8	-18	15.4	11.0	4.40	15.0	14.9	0.14
Tim Duncan	71	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.49	0	-2	2	13.5	15.0	-1.48	15.1	14.7	0.44
Manu Ginobili	47	47	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.47	-9	7	-16	14.2	13.8	0.42	14.7	15.2	-0.49

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	58	59	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.41	13	-11	24	14.4	15.8	-1.33	13.8	14.2	-0.46
DeJuan Blair	58	58	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.37	11	-9	20	15.1	14.8	0.29	14.5	13.2	1.23
Devin Harris	52	53	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.54	3	-1	4	15.3	14.6	0.73	13.7	14.3	-0.62
Monta Ellis	73	75	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.51	-4	6	-10	14.7	15.7	-0.99	13.5	15.3	-1.77
Dirk Nowitzki	75	76	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.18	-2	4	-6	15.7	12.7	2.97	15.0	10.7	4.27
Shawn Marion	56	57	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.20	-3	5	-8	13.8	16.6	-2.84	13.0	15.2	-2.25
Jae Crowder	18	18	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.25	-9	11	-20	15.9	14.8	1.09	11.9	14.4	-2.51
Jose Calderon	66	65	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.20	6	-4	10	15.1	14.7	0.41	14.6	12.7	1.99
Samuel Dalembert	39	39	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.05	-5	7	-12	15.4	14.7	0.68	13.9	14.0	-0.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.43,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.8,0.93,0.9,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 95, SAS 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.63,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.4,0.28,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.24,0.3,0.41,0.4,0.54,0.69,0.93,0.91,1,1	93.0%
PHX 92, POR 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.65,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.26,0.34,0.48,0.38,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.53,0.81,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.7%
CHA 106, CHI 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.67,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1	91.9%