NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	4.6 [907]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +17.4%
San Antonio Spurs	114		Comeback	1.0 [725]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -6.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.01	6	54%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.23	-0.00	0.17	10	91%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.04	11	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	22	50%	0.06	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Mike Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	22	47%	-0.00	3	-0.03	9	78%	-0.01
Norris Cole	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	10	32%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.07	-0.03	14	67%	0.23	3	-0.05	8	87%	0.05
Danny Green	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.03	0.03	15	75%	0.20	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.03	0.04	14	72%	0.15	3	-0.05	8	75%	-0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.11	-0.00	0.04	8	89%	0.08	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.03	10	71%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	1	25%	-0.02	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	3.5	37.2	17.5	29.6	4.3	39.7	161.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +54.1%

SAS +2.4%

MIA -1.8%

MIA -6.3%

SAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.0	14.4	15.4	106.1	116.3	104.1
season	15.7	15.2		110.2	106.4
opponent	15.1	15.9		99.5	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	14.7	15.5	14.4	15.0
SAS	13.5	12.9	15.2	16.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-13	16	20.0	14.9	5.07	14.5	14.4	0.09
James Jones	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-13	16	20.0	14.9	5.07	14.5	14.4	0.09
Joel Anthony	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-13	16	20.0	14.9	5.07	14.5	14.4	0.09
Mike Miller	50	52	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-13	16	13.7	16.4	-2.69	15.7	13.0	2.65
Chris Bosh	78	79	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.27	6	-16	22	14.6	16.3	-1.66	14.6	13.6	1.03
Mario Chalmers	53	56	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-8	6	15.0	15.0	-0.04	14.4	14.4	-0.04
Dwyane Wade	85	83	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	-4	-2	14.7	16.8	-2.06	14.3	14.9	-0.62
Shane Battier	37	35	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-4	-2	15.3	14.8	0.55	13.5	14.9	-1.43
Norris Cole	14	12	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.00	-14	4	-18	16.1	14.8	1.36	13.0	14.6	-1.60
Udonis Haslem	19	17	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.15	-19	9	-28	16.1	14.7	1.40	13.5	14.6	-1.13
LeBron James	89	90	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	-1	-8	15.0	15.0	-0.02	14.6	12.2	2.35
Ray Allen	62	60	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.13	-12	2	-14	15.8	13.6	2.25	14.0	15.1	-1.05

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Neal	41	43	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.06	17	-7	24	12.9	15.5	-2.59	16.1	14.1	1.98
Manu Ginobili	68	70	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.06	19	-9	28	14.2	14.8	-0.56	14.3	16.7	-2.48
Boris Diaw	54	54	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	3	4	14.1	14.8	-0.70	16.1	13.7	2.40
Danny Green	78	81	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.15	6	4	2	14.9	12.3	2.59	14.6	16.7	-2.09
Tiago Splitter	19	19	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.06	6	4	2	13.8	14.5	-0.70	15.7	14.8	0.87
Tim Duncan	79	78	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	8	-6	14.5	13.8	0.70	15.0	14.9	0.10
Kawhi Leonard	69	66	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.12	1	9	-8	14.8	13.5	1.31	14.7	15.5	-0.77
Tony Parker	75	75	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.11	-1	11	-12	14.6	13.7	0.93	14.6	16.2	-1.56
Matt Bonner	3	2	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	11	-12	16.3	14.3	1.99	11.0	15.1	-4.06
Nando De Colo	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	13	-16	14.5	14.4	0.09	20.0	14.9	5.07
Cory Joseph	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	13	-16	14.5	14.4	0.09	20.0	14.9	5.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.85,0.82,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.65,0.6,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.56,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.98,1,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 92, OKC 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.67,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
DET 107, TOR 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
CLE 83, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.85,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1	94.4%