NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	5.7 [656]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +27.7%
San Antonio Spurs	93		Comeback	1.9 [528]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -10.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.28	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.16	0.11	-0.00	25	59%	0.28	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.01	14	62%	0.12	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	10	61%	0.13	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
LeBron James	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.14	0.00	0.10	25	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Shane Battier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	4	75%	0.08	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	7	81%	0.16	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.00	10	67%	0.09	3	-0.05	10	80%	0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	10	55%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	1	25%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	6	64%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	40%	0.02	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.04
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	5	36%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	16	43%	-0.03	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.6	3.4	34.4	17.7	30.5	4.3	32.5	153.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.6%

SAS -8.0%

SAS -6.5%

MIA +27.1%

MIA +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	14.4	15.6	15.4	112.4	97.9	104.1
season	15.7	15.2		110.2	106.4
opponent	15.1	15.9		99.5	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.4	14.3	15.7	15.2	14.4
SAS	16.9	14.5	17.9	13.6	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	68	68	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.04	19	-3	22	14.4	14.5	-0.13	15.1	16.9	-1.72
Shane Battier	21	19	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	3	10	12.8	14.8	-2.02	14.8	15.8	-0.97
Chris Bosh	75	73	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.14	6	10	-4	14.5	13.9	0.68	15.8	15.1	0.63
Mario Chalmers	57	55	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	11	-6	15.7	12.5	3.22	15.7	15.5	0.21
LeBron James	81	80	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.02	8	8	0	14.6	13.3	1.29	16.0	13.7	2.24
Mike Miller	42	40	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	11	-6	14.2	14.5	-0.27	16.9	14.7	2.21
Norris Cole	39	39	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.06	9	7	2	12.3	15.8	-3.49	15.8	15.5	0.25
Dwyane Wade	80	79	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.06	5	11	-6	14.8	12.6	2.19	15.1	18.2	-3.16
Udonis Haslem	22	22	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.11	10	6	4	13.9	14.5	-0.68	15.1	15.8	-0.63

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nando De Colo	8	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-15	14	11.5	16.0	-4.50	18.3	14.1	4.20
DeJuan Blair	8	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-15	14	11.5	16.0	-4.50	18.3	14.1	4.20
Boris Diaw	21	23	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.10	3	-19	22	15.2	15.7	-0.49	14.7	14.3	0.46
Matt Bonner	16	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-12	8	12.9	16.2	-3.23	14.0	14.5	-0.46
Tony Parker	61	62	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-10	4	16.0	14.9	1.20	15.1	13.2	1.91
Danny Green	70	72	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-12	8	15.9	14.9	0.95	14.8	13.2	1.55
Cory Joseph	19	18	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.08	-9	-7	-2	14.7	15.8	-1.11	14.0	14.5	-0.48
Tim Duncan	63	67	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-12	8	16.3	14.3	1.93	14.5	14.2	0.23
Kawhi Leonard	65	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-10	4	16.2	14.3	1.88	14.4	14.3	0.13
Tiago Splitter	30	31	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	-5	-6	15.0	15.9	-0.86	12.4	15.3	-2.99
Gary Neal	62	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.02	-15	-1	-14	16.5	14.0	2.44	13.5	16.1	-2.61
Manu Ginobili	52	54	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	0.06	-22	6	-28	15.2	16.2	-1.03	14.3	14.6	-0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.28,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.18,0.29,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 108, MIN 92	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
HOU 93, CLE 85	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	93.7%
MIN 116, DET 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.12,0.06,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.5%