NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	7.4 [336]		MVP	Lance Stephenson (IND): +25.6%
Indiana Pacers	99		Comeback	2.2 [392]		LVP	Paul George (IND): -13.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.24	0.06	0.19	0.01	18	57%	0.32	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.06	-0.03	14	56%	0.04	0	0.00	8	100%	0.05
Udonis Haslem	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Norris Cole	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	15	44%	0.07	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.05
Chris Bosh	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	13	41%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.08	0.17	-0.01	15	62%	0.27	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.13	0.00	16	64%	0.29	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.02	13	53%	0.05	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.05
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	75%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.03
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.1,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	10	48%	0.01	5	-0.14	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	3.5	34.9	19.0	31.3	2.7	49.3	171.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +31.8%

MIA -1.9%

IND +35.6%

MIA -19.9%

IND +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	16.6	17.7	15.4	109.5	117.9	104.1
season	15.7	16.1		110.2	102.4
opponent	15.5	15.9		99.0	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.7	17.5	18.9	16.0	16.6
IND	16.0	17.6	19.0	18.3	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	5	4	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.03	5	-12	17	13.2	16.8	-3.65	19.2	17.6	1.67
Mario Chalmers	51	52	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.21	11	-18	29	15.4	18.5	-3.05	17.7	17.5	0.20
Mike Miller	0	1	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-9	11	0.0	16.6	-16.63	0.0	17.9	-17.87
Chris Bosh	50	52	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-5	3	16.5	16.9	-0.37	17.6	17.7	-0.05
Norris Cole	23	22	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.02	-9	2	-11	17.1	16.4	0.69	18.4	17.4	1.02
Udonis Haslem	33	30	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.04	-10	3	-13	16.4	16.8	-0.44	17.7	17.6	0.07
Dwyane Wade	65	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	-5	3	17.1	15.1	2.04	16.9	20.3	-3.41
Shane Battier	30	31	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.06	-10	3	-13	17.8	16.0	1.82	16.5	18.3	-1.80
LeBron James	73	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-4	1	16.8	15.2	1.67	18.6	10.9	7.67
Ray Allen	57	56	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.28	-6	-1	-5	16.1	17.8	-1.69	17.5	18.0	-0.46
Chris Andersen	33	32	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	4	-15	17.6	16.0	1.66	18.1	17.4	0.76

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lance Stephenson	70	71	0.98	-0.48	1.46	0.57	14	-7	21	17.8	17.1	0.61	16.9	15.1	1.84
David West	66	66	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.30	5	2	3	17.4	18.5	-1.08	17.3	14.3	2.99
George Hill	68	66	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.31	4	3	1	17.7	17.5	0.19	17.0	15.2	1.79
Roy Hibbert	69	67	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.24	5	2	3	18.4	14.1	4.37	16.6	16.9	-0.39
Paul George	57	58	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	4	-1	17.2	18.6	-1.33	17.2	15.3	1.97
Sam Young	26	25	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.05	7	0	7	17.9	17.6	0.33	16.4	16.7	-0.39
Ian Mahinmi	13	16	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	3	1	15.8	18.0	-2.14	17.1	16.5	0.53
Tyler Hansbrough	18	18	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	5	-3	17.6	17.7	-0.06	14.5	17.2	-2.71
D.J. Augustin	33	33	-0.52	1.02	-1.54	-0.25	-9	16	-25	17.5	17.8	-0.28	14.2	18.2	-3.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.78,0.74,0.74,0.86,0.85,0.79,0.46,0.34,0.31,0.55,0.77,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 94, CHI 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.55,0.64,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.76,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.82,0.64,0.59,0.46,0.32,0.64,0.78,0.92,1	90.6%
HOU 79, UTA 83	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.61,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.75,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.59,0.34,0.25,0.45,0.78,0.84,1	89.6%
MIN 97, BOS 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.37,0.75,0.73,1	89.6%