NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	7.0 [409]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +17.5%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	6.4 [626]		LVP	Joakim Noah (CHI): -16.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.05	-0.01	12	58%	0.12	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Nate Robinson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0,0,0,0.07,0.01	0.04	-0.04	-0.02	15	58%	0.15	4	-0.13	6	83%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.03	0.05	-0.12	-0.03	15	58%	0.04	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Carlos Boozer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.06,-0.06	0.06	-0.10	0.03	19	53%	-0.03	1	-0.03	11	55%	-0.06
Joakim Noah	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	5	25%	-0.07	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.10	-0.01	13	60%	0.18	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.00	6	83%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	2	100%	0.09	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.00	7	47%	0.10	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	5	42%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	14	53%	0.08	2	-0.05	15	80%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.01	8	60%	0.07	2	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	9	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	6	38%	0.00	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.0	3.4	33.9	18.8	31.3	3.7	37.6	158.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.9%

MIA +6.3%

CHI -14.7%

MIA +21.6%

MIA +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	17.6	16.5	15.4	108.3	110.6	104.1
season	16.6	15.7		101.7	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.2		102.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.1	16.2	18.6	20.1	17.6
MIA	15.9	15.8	15.9	18.8	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	7	8	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-8	13	17.1	17.6	-0.51	18.5	16.3	2.23
Taj Gibson	13	14	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.09	-2	-1	-1	19.2	17.3	1.83	19.4	15.9	3.44
Marco Belinelli	24	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.20	-16	13	-29	20.8	16.3	4.46	14.6	17.2	-2.61
Richard Hamilton	63	63	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.62	12	-15	27	16.5	21.0	-4.59	17.2	14.5	2.74
Carlos Boozer	73	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	0	-3	17.5	18.6	-1.18	16.1	18.7	-2.58
Nate Robinson	81	82	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	17.6	19.0	-1.44	16.5	16.0	0.50
Joakim Noah	75	74	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	3	-9	17.5	18.2	-0.69	16.1	19.4	-3.31
Jimmy Butler	84	85	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	17.6	0.0	17.61	16.5	0.0	16.48

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	34	35	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.55	6	-3	9	18.0	15.5	2.48	18.7	16.9	1.80
Chris Bosh	54	54	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.37	6	-3	9	17.1	15.5	1.62	17.9	17.0	0.89
LeBron James	79	79	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	-1	5	16.1	21.3	-5.22	17.5	18.8	-1.27
Dwyane Wade	66	64	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	-3	9	16.2	17.4	-1.14	17.9	16.6	1.26
Chris Andersen	22	23	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.13	5	-2	7	17.6	16.1	1.50	18.7	17.2	1.50
Shane Battier	50	50	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.58	-15	18	-33	16.8	16.0	0.77	16.7	19.0	-2.34
Udonis Haslem	44	41	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.25	10	-7	17	14.8	18.2	-3.40	17.7	17.5	0.24
Ray Allen	25	25	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.15	-4	7	-11	18.3	15.7	2.60	17.1	17.8	-0.75
Mario Chalmers	51	49	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.14	-3	6	-9	15.5	18.0	-2.48	16.9	18.7	-1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.67,0.75,0.93,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 98, PHI 100	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.58,0.73,0.9,0.99,0.98,0.98,1	92.4%
MIL 93, LAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.59,0.52,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.29,0.27,0.23,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.13,0.21,0.48,0.37,0.31,0.59,0.6,0.74,0.9,0.86,0.99,1	92.2%
DET 84, DAL 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.53,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.85,1	92.1%