NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	5.4 [719]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIA): +18.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	91		Comeback	2.7 [752]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -26.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.19	0.04	0.04	14	77%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.05	0.01	5	92%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
LeBron James	0.08	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.01	14	69%	0.22	5	-0.15	4	50%	-0.04
Udonis Haslem	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	6	86%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	87%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	39%	-0.02	1	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Shane Battier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.01	0.08	14	48%	-0.07	2	-0.03	5	40%	-0.05
Dwyane Wade	-0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.28	-0.05	-0.07	12	14%	-0.17	6	-0.10	4	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	67%	0.11	1	-0.04	8	75%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	-0.01	-0.02	10	67%	0.12	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	8	61%	0.01	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	7	79%	0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.03	0.06	12	62%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	15	43%	-0.00	4	-0.10	7	71%	-0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	2	12%	-0.07	2	-0.07	4	25%	-0.06
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.04	0.02	9	32%	-0.09	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	3.7	33.1	18.7	36.1	3.3	27.6	146.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +37.7%

MIL -4.3%

MIA +2.6%

MIA +10.9%

MIA +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.7	13.7	15.4	109.5	95.8	104.1
season	15.7	14.7		110.2	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.9		103.9	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.6	16.2	14.4	18.5	16.7
MIL	15.1	13.8	14.4	11.5	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	58	59	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.13	14	-1	15	16.3	17.2	-0.88	13.7	13.5	0.22
LeBron James	65	65	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.07	14	-1	15	16.2	17.5	-1.29	14.4	12.1	2.33
Shane Battier	57	54	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.09	11	2	9	16.8	16.4	0.39	13.3	14.1	-0.81
Chris Andersen	29	29	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.06	15	-2	17	14.6	17.6	-2.97	14.3	13.4	0.98
Norris Cole	44	44	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.04	9	4	5	16.1	17.1	-1.00	12.2	14.9	-2.63
Mario Chalmers	55	54	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	9	-5	17.0	16.2	0.74	14.6	12.4	2.20
Dwyane Wade	70	71	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.05	3	10	-7	17.3	14.7	2.62	13.2	15.0	-1.79
Chris Bosh	66	66	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.18	-2	15	-17	17.6	14.6	2.97	13.4	14.3	-0.98
Udonis Haslem	31	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	16	-19	16.5	16.7	-0.20	13.9	13.5	0.42

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ekpe Udoh	8	8	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-13	13	19.2	13.1	6.10	13.5	16.9	-3.44
John Henson	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-13	13	10.0	13.8	-3.78	15.0	16.7	-1.73
Ish Smith	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-13	13	10.0	13.8	-3.78	15.0	16.7	-1.73
Marquis Daniels	18	17	-0.01	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-12	11	11.7	14.1	-2.46	13.9	17.3	-3.37
Ersan Ilyasova	61	59	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-13	13	14.6	11.9	2.73	18.1	14.2	3.87
Samuel Dalembert	19	19	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-9	5	13.5	13.7	-0.24	14.2	17.3	-3.05
Monta Ellis	77	76	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	-7	1	13.9	12.7	1.23	17.3	14.1	3.18
Larry Sanders	68	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.01	-9	-4	-5	13.1	15.2	-2.13	17.7	14.0	3.71
Brandon Jennings	71	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	-4	-5	13.4	14.5	-1.18	16.9	16.0	0.95
Mike Dunleavy	45	47	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.15	-8	-5	-3	11.9	15.2	-3.29	16.4	16.9	-0.45
JJ Redick	37	38	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.13	-11	-2	-9	14.0	13.5	0.51	15.0	17.7	-2.71
Luc Mbah a Moute	65	66	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.03	-17	4	-21	14.7	11.4	3.31	16.3	17.3	-1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.61,0.67,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.13,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 110, MEM 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.7%
PHI 97, WAS 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.64,0.7,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.5%
PHX 111, HOU 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%