NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	94		Excitement	8.7 [126]		MVP	Mickael Pietrus (BOS): +26.7%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	5.1 [94]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -30.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.05	0.21	0.00	8	72%	0.34	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.24	0.10	0.14	-0.01	20	57%	0.29	1	-0.04	6	67%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0,0.2	-0.03	0.21	-0.01	19	44%	0.23	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.08
Keyon Dooling	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	1	150%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Stiemsma	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Marquis Daniels	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04	0.02	-0.06	-0.00	9	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.08
Brandon Bass	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.01	8	56%	-0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.24,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.23	-0.10	-0.03	15	22%	-0.15	5	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.1	0.10	0.00	0.10	0.01	22	52%	0.21	3	-0.11	8	75%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09	0.09	-0.04	0.12	-0.01	7	53%	0.15	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	4	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	8	47%	0.01	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	5	25%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.08
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.10	0.00	25	52%	-0.03	3	-0.06	8	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	3.6	35.4	16.7	29.1	3.5	46.4	162.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +31.0%

BOS +20.6%

MIA -1.3%

MIA -2.6%

BOS +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.0	16.0	15.6	96.9	94.7	102.8
season	15.5	15.5		99.4	105.6
opponent	15.8	16.2		98.8	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.4	13.0	14.6	13.2	14.0
MIA	14.0	17.0	16.7	16.3	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	88	87	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.32	11	-7	18	14.2	12.0	2.24	16.1	14.7	1.35
Kevin Garnett	72	68	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.52	4	0	4	14.0	14.1	-0.07	16.3	15.1	1.18
Mickael Pietrus	55	55	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.42	5	-1	6	12.9	15.5	-2.63	16.5	15.3	1.23
Paul Pierce	86	85	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.42	0	4	-4	14.4	11.2	3.21	16.0	15.6	0.44
Ray Allen	79	77	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.30	1	3	-2	14.5	11.8	2.77	15.9	16.4	-0.56
Keyon Dooling	19	19	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	3	-2	12.2	14.5	-2.33	16.3	15.9	0.34
Greg Stiemsma	16	17	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	3	-2	15.6	13.7	1.91	14.9	16.2	-1.28
Marquis Daniels	9	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	7	-10	10.0	14.4	-4.44	13.6	16.2	-2.58
Brandon Bass	61	59	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.18	0	4	-4	14.4	13.5	0.89	15.6	16.7	-1.14

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	24	25	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.07	6	-10	16	17.1	15.6	1.52	12.8	14.5	-1.66
Udonis Haslem	66	66	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.21	6	-10	16	15.8	16.3	-0.46	14.7	12.7	1.94
Dwyane Wade	79	80	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.28	8	-12	20	15.5	18.6	-3.17	14.4	12.1	2.39
James Jones	33	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.10	-1	-3	2	17.3	15.3	2.06	12.2	15.1	-2.88
Mike Miller	20	22	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	6	-16	17.8	15.5	2.36	12.1	14.6	-2.45
LeBron James	89	91	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.40	0	-4	4	16.0	16.2	-0.19	14.1	13.5	0.57
Chris Bosh	29	29	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	8	-20	16.3	15.8	0.46	13.4	14.3	-0.83
Shane Battier	64	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.32	-7	3	-10	15.4	17.2	-1.84	14.7	12.6	2.11
Mario Chalmers	71	72	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.31	-10	6	-16	15.6	17.1	-1.52	14.5	12.8	1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.72,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.77,0.75,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.48,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.42,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.33,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 96, TOR 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.33,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.23,0.04,0	89.9%
MIL 83, ATL 77	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.69,0.55,0.57,0.42,0	89.8%
NOH 75, SAC 71	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.62,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.69,0.46,0.45,0.08,0	89.7%