NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	9.6 [70]		MVP	Norris Cole (MIA): +9.2%
Boston Celtics	93		Comeback	2.1 [392]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): -39.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Norris Cole	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.07	0.00	2	56%	0.09	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.05	0.02	6	75%	0.06	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.04
Mike Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.00	4	75%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.21	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.05	-0.16	0.00	13	43%	-0.09	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	-0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.15,-0.23,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.27,-0.27	-0.08	-0.21	-0.01	25	50%	0.03	7	-0.30	8	50%	-0.09
Dwyane Wade	-0.38	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.01	22	41%	-0.22	4	-0.15	5	80%	-0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	5	83%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.06	-0.03	14	50%	0.11	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.06
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	8	52%	0.03	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Greg Stiemsma	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	-0.02	16	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.05
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.10	-0.03	18	55%	0.16	3	-0.20	6	83%	-0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	3	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.3,-0.39	-0.39	-0.12	-0.30	-0.02	20	41%	-0.02	5	-0.37	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.3	3.5	39.3	16.7	31.2	3.4	40.7	1.8	16.0	179.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	1.9	17.4	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +49.0%

MIA -9.2%

BOS +8.6%

MIA -0.8%

BOS +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	16.5	16.9	15.6	94.8	98.9	102.8
season	15.5	15.5		105.6	99.4
opponent	16.2	15.8		97.1	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	17.2	14.1	15.3	18.2	20.6	16.5
BOS	13.5	16.6	21.7	16.1	19.3	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	88	88	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-3	4	16.3	19.4	-3.09	17.1	14.0	3.14
Mike Miller	21	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	0	-2	16.6	16.5	0.04	13.5	17.9	-4.46
Norris Cole	25	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.14	0	-2	2	17.4	16.2	1.16	16.6	17.1	-0.46
Joel Anthony	27	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.15	-11	9	-20	15.9	16.8	-0.86	16.9	17.0	-0.06
James Jones	20	19	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.22	-1	-1	0	16.1	16.7	-0.56	18.8	16.5	2.39
Shane Battier	78	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-4	6	16.6	16.5	0.05	17.0	16.8	0.11
Udonis Haslem	65	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.52	3	-5	8	16.7	16.2	0.51	16.6	17.6	-1.01
Dwyane Wade	92	89	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.46	1	-3	4	16.5	18.2	-1.78	17.3	9.6	7.75
Mario Chalmers	64	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	1	-4	16.9	15.9	1.00	17.1	16.6	0.52

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	85	87	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.37	8	-6	14	16.2	23.6	-7.32	16.9	13.3	3.54
Kevin Garnett	75	79	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	-5	12	16.6	18.1	-1.47	16.7	15.7	1.02
Marquis Daniels	23	23	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.55	-4	6	-10	19.6	16.1	3.54	17.4	16.3	1.12
Mickael Pietrus	40	40	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	3	-4	18.4	15.9	2.55	17.4	15.9	1.47
Keyon Dooling	28	28	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	3	-4	17.2	16.8	0.35	16.1	16.7	-0.56
Brandon Bass	62	62	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	0	2	16.5	17.7	-1.14	15.6	18.3	-2.71
Ray Allen	82	85	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	0	2	17.4	14.0	3.37	16.4	17.9	-1.54
Greg Stiemsma	1	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	4	-6	23.0	16.9	6.13	9.0	16.6	-7.62
Paul Pierce	74	75	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	3	-4	16.1	20.0	-3.96	16.5	16.7	-0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.87,0.82,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.84,0.74,0.46,0.55,0.36,0.68,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 125, MIN 128	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.81,0.71,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.9,0.97,0.93,0.54,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.58,1	89.8%
NOH 104, DET 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.91,0.89,0.78,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.47,0.55,0.76,0.72,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.67,0.91,1	89.7%
SEA 108, NJN 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.88,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.73,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.36,0.68,0.83,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.43,0.92,1	89.0%