NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	91		Excitement	7.2 [314]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): +31.1%
Boston Celtics	92		Comeback	7.0 [245]		LVP	Jrue Holiday (PHI): -23.9%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lavoy Allen	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.09	-0.01	7	75%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Spencer Hawes	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.01	12	54%	0.13	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Andre Iguodala	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.01	16	56%	0.06	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Elton Brand	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Evan Turner	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	13	57%	0.03	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Louis Williams	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	11	41%	-0.04	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24	-0.10	-0.10	0.04	13	29%	-0.20	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.13	0.20	0.02	20	64%	0.39	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.05
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.00	10	55%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Stiemsma	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	11	47%	0.06	2	-0.07	8	100%	0.05
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	11	36%	-0.05	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.22	-0.22	-0.17	-0.06	-0.01	15	41%	0.05	7	-0.28	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.4	30.4	19.4	27.5	3.7	35.0	144.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +18.1%

BOS +18.9%

BOS +23.8%

PHI -16.6%

BOS +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	BOS	NBA	PHI	BOS	NBA
this game	15.1	15.5	15.6	96.8	97.9	102.8
season	15.6	15.5		101.0	99.4
opponent	16.2	16.1		97.1	97.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	16.0	16.2	13.8	14.6	15.1
BOS	15.3	16.5	15.0	15.4	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lavoy Allen	37	36	0.33	-0.83	1.17	0.16	6	-7	13	15.5	14.9	0.58	17.2	14.5	2.69
Elton Brand	31	33	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-4	7	14.7	15.3	-0.54	14.4	16.1	-1.71
Jodie Meeks	9	9	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	4	-9	19.6	14.6	4.92	20.3	15.0	5.31
Thaddeus Young	41	39	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	10	-21	16.5	14.1	2.41	15.8	15.3	0.49
Spencer Hawes	69	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.56	5	-6	11	14.3	17.4	-3.12	15.4	15.9	-0.47
Andre Iguodala	81	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.52	3	-4	7	14.6	18.2	-3.54	15.1	18.2	-3.12
Louis Williams	44	45	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.27	-7	6	-13	15.7	14.6	1.08	16.1	15.0	1.03
Evan Turner	82	83	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.60	4	-5	9	14.6	18.6	-3.99	15.8	13.5	2.25
Jrue Holiday	76	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.45	-3	2	-5	15.3	14.2	1.09	14.4	19.6	-5.23

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	60	61	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.34	17	-16	33	16.0	14.7	1.25	16.3	12.9	3.39
Kevin Garnett	77	75	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.58	4	-3	7	15.0	18.1	-3.16	15.2	14.8	0.33
Rajon Rondo	81	80	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.60	0	1	-1	15.0	18.9	-3.94	14.7	17.3	-2.56
Avery Bradley	58	57	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.67	-3	4	-7	14.7	16.8	-2.06	13.9	17.0	-3.17
Paul Pierce	81	81	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.53	-3	4	-7	15.0	19.1	-4.11	14.6	18.2	-3.54
Ryan Hollins	17	16	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	-2	5	17.1	15.2	1.94	18.2	14.5	3.79
Keyon Dooling	15	15	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.12	3	-2	5	17.9	15.1	2.86	17.5	14.6	2.89
Mickael Pietrus	18	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.13	2	-1	3	17.8	15.0	2.78	17.2	14.6	2.64
Greg Stiemsma	14	16	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.08	-5	6	-11	19.1	14.9	4.24	14.1	15.3	-1.26
Brandon Bass	49	50	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	0.00	-13	14	-27	15.5	15.6	-0.05	14.2	16.2	-1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.35,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.84,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 86, TOR 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.26,0.17,0.2,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.37,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.78,0.92,1	91.8%
CHI 76, MIL 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.23,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.33,0.45,0.54,0.76,0.91,1	90.8%
DET 108, DAL 111	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.27,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.54,0.43,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.68,0.84,1	90.7%