NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	103		Excitement	6.6 [390]		MVP	James Harden (OKC): +35.3%
Dallas Mavericks	97		Comeback	16.9 [61]		LVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): -12.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.35	0.20	0.14	-0.01	16	78%	0.38	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Derek Fisher	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	6	100%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	-0.00	0.10	-0.03	18	59%	0.25	5	-0.12	5	80%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	9	56%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Daequan Cook	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0.01	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	12	37%	-0.10	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.18,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.00	25	54%	0.20	1	-0.08	13	100%	0.11
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.04	0.00	4	77%	0.09	1	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	10	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	12	42%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.09	-0.01	11	73%	0.09	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	9	45%	-0.01	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	3.0	32.2	19.3	28.5	3.6	40.3	155.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +54.3%

DAL -7.7%

DAL -10.9%

OKC +16.0%

DAL -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DAL	NBA	OKC	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	16.6	15.6	114.4	106.6	102.8
season	14.7	15.5		107.9	101.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		100.9	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.5	16.4	15.7	15.6	15.3
DAL	16.5	17.9	15.0	17.1	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	58	59	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.28	21	-15	36	14.7	16.3	-1.59	15.7	18.2	-2.56
James Harden	67	67	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.36	16	-10	26	14.8	16.7	-1.88	15.7	18.9	-3.20
Serge Ibaka	53	55	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.31	6	0	6	16.2	14.0	2.18	18.9	13.0	5.94
Kevin Durant	75	75	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	2	2	15.2	15.6	-0.41	16.6	16.6	-0.00
Russell Westbrook	70	70	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.42	-5	11	-16	15.5	14.5	0.97	16.3	17.5	-1.25
Nick Collison	40	40	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.00	6	0	6	14.2	16.1	-1.81	14.8	18.0	-3.19
Daequan Cook	24	25	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.05	4	2	2	14.7	15.4	-0.69	15.2	17.1	-1.88
Kendrick Perkins	15	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	6	-6	13.7	15.6	-1.91	18.7	16.1	2.52
Nazr Mohammed	18	18	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.04	-9	15	-24	19.0	14.3	4.68	18.6	16.1	2.49
Thabo Sefolosha	30	31	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	-0.01	-13	19	-32	15.8	15.0	0.82	17.8	15.9	1.89

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	46	45	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.01	4	-10	14	19.4	13.6	5.77	15.2	15.3	-0.02
Brandan Wright	13	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-2	-2	16.1	16.6	-0.56	14.5	15.4	-0.91
Jason Kidd	73	73	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.38	6	-12	18	15.5	20.8	-5.26	15.1	15.9	-0.77
Vince Carter	41	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.12	-13	7	-20	15.7	17.2	-1.51	14.1	16.2	-2.17
Shawn Marion	64	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.41	2	-8	10	16.5	16.8	-0.31	15.6	14.3	1.35
Ian Mahinmi	26	28	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-3	0	13.0	18.0	-5.04	15.1	15.3	-0.22
Delonte West	37	35	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.12	-8	2	-10	16.2	16.8	-0.67	15.2	15.3	-0.09
Dirk Nowitzki	77	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.32	-5	-1	-4	16.8	15.1	1.76	15.4	14.5	0.95
Jason Terry	78	77	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.30	-9	3	-12	17.6	10.5	7.03	15.8	12.3	3.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.69,0.73,0.84,0.85,0.94,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.81,0.69,0.54,0.47,0.32,0.15,0.09,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 105, PHX 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.83,0.69,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.74,0.53,0.39,0.32,0.15,0.03,0.02,0	91.3%
PHX 97, DAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.72,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.76,0.63,0.47,0.41,0.33,0.15,0.07,0.1,0.04,0	91.0%
CLE 103, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.73,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.76,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.45,0.6,0.47,0.29,0.1,0.02,0	91.0%