NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	85		Excitement	5.3 [779]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +35.0%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	1.3 [985]		LVP	Joakim Noah (CHI): -14.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Boozer	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.02	19	52%	0.09	1	-0.03	12	83%	0.04
Luol Deng	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	13	54%	0.15	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.02	0.05	6	79%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Kyle Korver	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	19	49%	0.09	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Ronnie Brewer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	6	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Omer Asik	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	4	10%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.20	0.16	0.01	18	74%	0.40	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.14	-0.00	0.03	13	63%	0.10	0	0.00	9	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.01	7	57%	0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	3	75%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	17	42%	0.02	4	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	3.5	30.4	19.4	26.0	2.8	36.9	147.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.3%

MIA +8.3%

CHI -11.5%

MIA +18.9%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	17.7	15.5	96.6	111.6	105.7
season	15.7	16.0		106.5	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.9		102.3	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.8	17.2	15.4	13.4	15.4
MIA	15.5	19.7	16.6	19.3	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Watson	15	16	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-13	15	17.9	14.9	3.03	19.2	17.4	1.89
Ronnie Brewer	43	43	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-15	19	14.8	16.0	-1.28	19.3	16.2	3.09
Omer Asik	26	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	-8	5	17.0	14.7	2.30	18.7	17.3	1.37
Taj Gibson	22	22	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	-8	5	13.0	16.2	-3.23	20.8	16.6	4.18
Kyle Korver	18	18	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.04	-6	-5	-1	18.0	14.8	3.24	17.8	17.7	0.16
Keith Bogans	36	34	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.02	-8	-3	-5	16.0	15.0	1.03	16.3	18.6	-2.29
Carlos Boozer	74	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-5	-1	15.6	14.4	1.18	16.8	21.8	-4.95
Joakim Noah	54	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.17	-10	-1	-9	15.4	15.5	-0.13	17.1	18.7	-1.56
Luol Deng	79	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	1	-13	14.9	19.9	-4.98	17.4	20.1	-2.68
Derrick Rose	73	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	2	-15	14.9	17.9	-3.03	17.4	19.2	-1.89

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	80	82	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.11	16	-5	21	17.3	23.3	-6.05	15.1	20.0	-4.91
Chris Bosh	78	79	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.12	15	-4	19	17.3	21.6	-4.32	15.6	14.2	1.33
Dwyane Wade	71	73	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.12	12	-1	13	17.7	17.7	-0.03	15.5	14.8	0.75
Mario Chalmers	36	37	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.13	8	3	5	19.7	16.2	3.51	15.6	15.3	0.39
Udonis Haslem	42	43	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.20	3	8	-5	18.6	16.9	1.73	14.6	16.2	-1.55
Joel Anthony	51	53	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.10	4	7	-3	17.6	17.9	-0.25	16.2	14.3	1.84
Mike Bibby	50	51	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	8	-5	16.2	19.7	-3.51	15.3	15.6	-0.39
Mike Miller	22	22	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	17	-23	19.2	17.2	2.04	15.5	15.4	0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 91, TOR 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.7,0.86,0.97,0.97,0.9,0.89,0.95,0.96,1	94.2%
CHA 86, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.84,0.98,1,1	94.0%
HOU 71, POR 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.78,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,1	93.9%