NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	82		Excitement	4.8 [898]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +58.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	84		Comeback	136.0 [20]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -24.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11	-0.00	0.07	-0.04	11	55%	0.16	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	17	53%	0.07	4	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Brendan Haywood	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kidd	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,-0.02	0.05	-0.09	-0.02	6	75%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	0.00	0.06	7	57%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	7	29%	-0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.25	-0.08	-0.19	-0.02	16	38%	-0.22	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.39,0.59	0.59	0.15	0.45	0.01	13	77%	0.60	2	-0.01	5	80%	0.04
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.03	0.02	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.03	16	47%	-0.03	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	10	58%	0.02	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	5	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	9	45%	0.00	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	3.0	33.6	18.8	29.2	1.8	40.2	151.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +24.6%

POR +23.8%

DAL -6.5%

POR +11.5%

DAL -3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	POR	NBA	DAL	POR	NBA
this game	18.5	16.0	15.5	97.6	101.2	105.7
season	15.7	16.5		108.5	106.7
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.6	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.9	18.7	18.0	20.5	18.5
POR	17.4	14.0	18.0	14.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	27	28	0.43	-0.93	1.36	0.05	13	-15	28	16.7	19.4	-2.68	18.5	14.7	3.85
Brendan Haywood	33	32	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.09	4	-6	10	19.7	17.7	1.98	14.7	16.7	-1.96
Peja Stojakovic	41	41	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.06	0	-2	2	19.2	17.9	1.36	15.6	16.3	-0.72
Jose Juan Barea	34	33	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	2	-6	19.5	17.9	1.59	13.7	17.5	-3.79
Shawn Marion	61	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-6	10	17.7	20.6	-2.87	15.6	16.8	-1.21
Jason Kidd	50	50	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.46	2	-4	6	17.9	19.5	-1.59	17.5	13.7	3.79
Dirk Nowitzki	66	65	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.43	-8	6	-14	18.8	17.4	1.37	16.5	14.0	2.49
Tyson Chandler	51	51	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.53	-6	4	-10	17.7	19.7	-1.98	16.7	14.7	1.96
Jason Terry	57	55	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.49	-15	13	-28	19.4	16.7	2.68	14.7	18.5	-3.85

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Roy	41	42	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.28	16	-14	30	14.4	17.5	-3.13	19.2	17.9	1.29
Gerald Wallace	71	73	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.40	6	-4	10	15.8	17.1	-1.32	18.1	21.5	-3.48
LaMarcus Aldridge	80	81	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	-2	6	16.0	14.3	1.68	18.9	9.0	9.88
Nicolas Batum	43	41	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.57	-1	3	-4	15.3	16.7	-1.44	20.2	17.0	3.22
Wesley Matthews	64	66	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.59	-3	5	-8	16.1	15.5	0.62	17.8	21.2	-3.36
Chris Johnson	5	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	4	-6	18.4	15.8	2.61	9.2	19.0	-9.74
Marcus Camby	32	34	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.09	-6	8	-14	17.6	14.9	2.67	18.1	18.8	-0.73
Rudy Fernandez	27	26	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.14	1	1	0	15.9	16.0	-0.04	19.4	18.1	1.25
Andre Miller	52	53	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.05	-5	7	-12	16.5	15.0	1.57	18.3	18.9	-0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.24,0.19,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.09,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 101, ATL 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.42,1	93.4%
HOU 102, CHI 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.42,1	93.2%
HOU 120, DAL 123	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.37,1	91.7%