NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	81		Excitement	6.7 [494]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +36.1%
Dallas Mavericks	89		Comeback	5.9 [310]		LVP	Gerald Wallace (POR): -17.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Fernandez	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	0.00	3	86%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	20	61%	0.22	4	-0.13	4	75%	0.01
Andre Miller	0.03	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	13	58%	0.07	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	14	47%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Wesley Matthews	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	7	13%	-0.14	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Gerald Wallace	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	13	31%	-0.07	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.23,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,0.2,0.37,0.37,0.36	0.36	-0.03	0.39	-0.00	20	53%	0.49	6	-0.13	13	100%	0.16
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.2	0.20	0.20	0.03	0.03	14	86%	0.25	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.02	5	56%	0.08	1	-0.05	8	75%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Brian Cardinal	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	62%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	7	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	6	43%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	7	25%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.7	31.0	18.8	25.2	2.7	40.3	147.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +11.8%

DAL +48.1%

POR -11.1%

DAL +1.6%

POR -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DAL	NBA	POR	DAL	NBA
this game	16.5	17.6	15.5	95.3	106.0	105.7
season	16.5	15.7		106.7	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.7		103.8	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.5	18.6	14.7	16.3	16.5
DAL	17.8	16.5	19.8	16.5	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Fernandez	31	32	0.22	-0.72	0.93	0.22	0	-8	8	19.4	14.8	4.55	15.4	19.0	-3.59
Marcus Camby	53	50	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-7	6	16.0	17.3	-1.26	18.1	16.8	1.35
Wesley Matthews	36	36	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.07	-7	-1	-6	15.5	17.2	-1.72	17.6	17.6	-0.07
Nicolas Batum	58	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-4	0	17.1	15.2	1.86	17.2	18.4	-1.20
Gerald Wallace	70	68	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	-4	0	16.1	18.5	-2.48	18.0	15.7	2.28
Brandon Roy	45	45	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.18	-10	2	-12	17.8	15.0	2.87	16.7	18.6	-1.95
LaMarcus Aldridge	72	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.30	-8	0	-8	16.1	18.7	-2.60	17.7	16.6	1.10
Andre Miller	60	58	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.48	-6	-2	-4	15.4	19.1	-3.66	18.8	15.0	3.76

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	59	61	0.88	-0.38	1.27	0.50	13	-5	18	18.1	16.3	1.82	16.1	17.6	-1.52
Jason Kidd	63	64	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.46	12	-4	16	17.2	18.7	-1.49	15.5	19.4	-3.83
Tyson Chandler	59	61	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.51	6	2	4	17.8	17.2	0.56	14.8	20.8	-6.05
Dirk Nowitzki	71	73	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.16	17	-9	26	17.3	19.2	-1.93	16.0	19.7	-3.69
Jason Terry	45	45	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.17	13	-5	18	17.0	18.3	-1.33	18.2	14.6	3.62
Brian Cardinal	1	0	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	8	-8	22.0	17.5	4.46	0.0	16.5	-16.49
DeShawn Stevenson	34	36	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.13	-8	16	-24	18.5	17.0	1.52	14.8	17.7	-2.93
Brendan Haywood	25	24	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.19	0	8	-8	17.2	17.8	-0.56	20.8	14.8	6.05
Peja Stojakovic	30	29	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	-0.22	-4	12	-16	17.9	17.4	0.47	18.7	15.4	3.33
Jose Juan Barea	33	32	-0.48	0.98	-1.47	-0.22	-9	17	-26	17.5	17.7	-0.18	17.9	15.6	2.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.39,0.71,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 92, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.46,0.61,0.72,0.87,0.95,1	92.5%
BOS 101, MIA 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.68,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.68,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.39,0.44,0.64,0.78,0.98,1	91.8%
BOS 102, TOR 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.44,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.66,0.78,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.23,0.3,0.24,0.46,0.61,0.71,0.97,0.99,1	91.5%