NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	101		Excitement	7.4 [325]		MVP	Lamar Odom (MIA): +8.8%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	7.3 [241]		LVP	Walter McCarty (BOS): -14.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jiri Welsch	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.07	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	6	56%	0.10	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.07
Chris Mihm	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	83%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Jumaine Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01	0.07	-0.07	0.00	18	65%	0.07	2	-0.08	12	83%	-0.02
Brandon Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05	0.08	-0.13	-0.00	16	65%	0.09	2	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Chucky Atkins	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06	0.02	-0.08	0.00	14	53%	-0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Walter McCarty	-0.14	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.00	0.00	9	20%	-0.10	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.01	11	67%	0.11	1	-0.02	14	100%	0.08
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.06	-0.00	10	52%	0.06	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.02	9	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Samaki Walker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.14	0.06	-0.04	12	50%	0.13	6	-0.17	8	75%	0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	11	50%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	9	50%	-0.10	2	-0.04	10	70%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	31.0	15.6	32.2	2.5	37.1	147.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -6.7%

MIA +25.4%

MIA +17.2%

MIA +20.5%

BOS -6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	15.9	15.7	106.3	110.6	100.5
season	14.4	16.2		99.5	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.9		98.8	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.0	13.0	14.4	15.2	14.6
MIA	15.3	14.7	18.4	15.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Blount	42	43	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.10	6	-9	15	14.9	14.4	0.44	16.0	15.8	0.15
Brandon Hunter	8	10	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-7	11	14.2	14.6	-0.39	15.4	15.9	-0.53
Jumaine Jones	9	8	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-6	9	12.7	14.8	-2.15	18.5	15.6	2.87
Marcus Banks	9	9	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.05	-8	5	-13	15.1	14.6	0.55	14.1	16.1	-1.95
Jiri Welsch	64	63	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.39	4	-7	11	15.2	13.4	1.86	16.7	14.2	2.46
Chucky Atkins	86	85	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.46	5	-8	13	14.6	15.1	-0.55	16.1	14.1	1.95
Ricky Davis	69	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.44	1	-4	5	13.7	17.0	-3.24	15.4	17.0	-1.58
Walter McCarty	46	45	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.11	-18	15	-33	15.5	13.8	1.68	15.4	16.3	-0.91
Paul Pierce	89	89	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.38	-3	0	-3	14.6	14.2	0.47	15.7	19.0	-3.30
Chris Mihm	53	51	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.32	-9	6	-15	14.4	14.9	-0.44	15.8	16.0	-0.15

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	80	79	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.54	8	-5	13	15.8	16.4	-0.57	14.3	16.1	-1.75
Lamar Odom	78	78	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.47	9	-6	15	15.7	16.9	-1.28	14.5	15.0	-0.47
Eddie Jones	57	59	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	-1	5	16.0	15.7	0.28	16.1	12.2	3.85
Udonis Haslem	61	61	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.39	5	-2	7	15.1	17.2	-2.06	13.6	16.4	-2.76
Rafer Alston	67	68	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	1	1	15.4	17.1	-1.69	13.6	17.1	-3.55
Samaki Walker	1	2	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	2	-1	14.0	15.9	-1.89	14.5	14.6	-0.11
Rasual Butler	26	27	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.17	7	-4	11	16.1	15.8	0.28	15.1	14.4	0.70
Brian Grant	45	45	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.07	-6	9	-15	17.0	14.9	2.08	15.8	13.5	2.34
Caron Butler	55	56	-0.51	1.01	-1.53	-0.07	-15	18	-33	16.6	14.8	1.84	14.7	14.5	0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.68,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.68,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.39,0.44,0.64,0.78,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 92, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.46,0.61,0.72,0.87,0.95,1	92.0%
POR 81, DAL 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.39,0.71,0.9,0.96,1	91.8%
DAL 92, PHX 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.86,0.78,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.38,0.45,0.78,0.96,1	90.8%