NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	109		Excitement	6.4 [537]		MVP	Jarrett Jack (NOH): +25.9%
Los Angeles Lakers	100		Comeback	1.2 [229]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (NOH): -14.6%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.13	0.13	-0.00	6	79%	0.26	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Chris Paul	0.25	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25	0.17	0.13	0.05	18	69%	0.29	2	-0.04	12	75%	-0.01
Aaron Gray	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.08	0.00	5	86%	0.20	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Willie Green	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	0.00	7	53%	0.11	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Carl Landry	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.03	13	55%	0.07	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Marco Belinelli	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.02	-0.00	13	20%	-0.15	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.01	8	73%	0.21	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.06
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	6	67%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.27,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.03	26	57%	0.23	5	-0.15	8	87%	0.02
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	7	62%	0.10	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Trey Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Theo Ratliff	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.07	6	62%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	9	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	8	44%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.0	34.1	18.0	30.3	3.3	40.5	154.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +31.6%

LAL -4.2%

LAL -13.5%

NOH +32.5%

NOH +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	LAL	NBA	NOH	LAL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.8	15.5	114.7	109.9	105.7
season	16.2	15.9		104.6	108.8
opponent	15.5	15.9		103.1	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	13.3	15.1	17.1	15.5	15.2
LAL	15.5	16.9	16.3	14.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	42	36	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.02	25	-16	41	15.2	15.2	0.01	15.7	15.8	-0.12
Jarrett Jack	43	40	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.20	16	-7	23	15.6	14.9	0.72	15.6	15.9	-0.26
Jason Smith	29	26	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.17	10	-1	11	14.6	15.5	-0.95	16.6	15.4	1.18
Trevor Ariza	80	75	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.11	9	0	9	14.9	16.7	-1.73	15.4	17.3	-1.87
Chris Paul	82	77	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.13	7	2	5	15.3	14.7	0.60	15.5	17.4	-1.88
Willie Green	23	23	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.14	3	6	-3	16.2	14.9	1.33	17.0	15.3	1.71
Carl Landry	68	66	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	11	-13	14.8	16.1	-1.31	15.1	17.5	-2.41
DJ Mbenga	12	12	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	8	-7	15.6	15.2	0.43	17.4	15.5	1.90
Marco Belinelli	57	58	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.14	-8	17	-25	14.8	15.9	-1.10	16.2	15.1	1.11
Emeka Okafor	39	42	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.12	-16	25	-41	16.2	14.5	1.73	15.9	15.7	0.21

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	2	3	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-11	13	10.0	15.9	-5.90	11.3	15.3	-4.00
Joe Smith	2	3	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-11	13	10.0	15.9	-5.90	11.3	15.3	-4.00
Pau Gasol	75	76	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.14	3	-12	15	15.3	18.1	-2.78	15.1	15.7	-0.59
Metta World Peace	70	73	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-12	15	15.3	17.4	-2.10	15.1	15.5	-0.32
Trey Johnson	10	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-4	-1	18.8	15.4	3.40	16.6	15.0	1.55
Kobe Bryant	81	85	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-11	13	15.4	18.7	-3.29	15.0	16.8	-1.78
Matt Barnes	14	15	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	2	-13	17.2	15.5	1.71	15.3	15.2	0.07
Derek Fisher	75	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-5	1	15.4	17.4	-2.02	15.2	15.3	-0.08
Shannon Brown	23	25	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	3	-15	17.5	15.2	2.29	15.5	15.1	0.42
Lamar Odom	57	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	-1	-7	15.8	15.7	0.15	15.6	14.6	1.01
Andrew Bynum	48	51	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.14	-15	6	-21	16.7	14.7	1.99	15.2	15.2	-0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.49,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.2,0.15,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.07,0.15,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 95, CHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.04,0	93.0%
SEA 103, CHA 97	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.06,0.01,0	92.8%
LAC 100, SAC 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.35,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.28,0.15,0.21,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.15,0	92.6%