NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	81		Excitement	6.7 [485]		MVP	Jamal Crawford (ATL): +12.5%
Atlanta Hawks	84		Comeback	1.1 [639]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -24.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	13	54%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Gilbert Arenas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Jameer Nelson	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.01	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	0.00	-0.04	0.01	7	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	14	62%	0.14	6	-0.18	12	75%	-0.02
Brandon Bass	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	8	37%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.00	16	53%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.00	7	73%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	6	83%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.04	0.09	-0.03	25	44%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	9	45%	0.05	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Hilton Armstrong	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	1	25%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.18	-0.07	0.00	14	27%	-0.13	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	0.8	28.4	16.5	27.7	2.0	36.4	138.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +16.8%

ATL +1.0%

ATL +25.7%

ORL -2.4%

ATL +8.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.6	19.1	15.5	96.4	102.4	105.7
season	15.2	16.5		106.3	104.0
opponent	15.5	16.2		105.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.0	15.0	17.3	15.3	15.6
ATL	17.0	17.0	18.7	24.7	19.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	67	66	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.29	7	-10	17	15.1	17.5	-2.40	18.7	21.1	-2.41
Ryan Anderson	38	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.18	3	-6	9	16.5	14.9	1.56	21.8	17.0	4.80
Brandon Bass	41	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	2	-7	15.5	15.7	-0.21	15.9	22.2	-6.24
Quentin Richardson	10	8	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	4	-11	14.7	15.7	-1.04	19.6	19.1	0.56
Jason Richardson	48	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.30	1	-4	5	14.3	17.4	-3.05	17.9	20.8	-2.88
Gilbert Arenas	30	29	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.31	-1	-2	1	15.7	15.6	0.13	22.7	17.2	5.57
JJ Redick	33	31	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.12	-9	6	-15	16.6	15.0	1.68	20.3	18.4	1.83
Dwight Howard	84	82	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	15.6	0.0	15.62	19.1	0.0	19.12
Hedo Turkoglu	70	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.49	-1	-2	1	16.1	13.3	2.80	18.8	21.2	-2.40

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	33	35	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.28	13	-10	23	21.2	17.7	3.45	17.1	14.6	2.56
Jamal Crawford	51	52	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.34	7	-4	11	19.6	18.3	1.39	15.7	15.5	0.19
Joe Johnson	80	80	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.47	-2	5	-7	19.1	18.0	1.15	15.6	15.5	0.13
Zaza Pachulia	37	37	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.14	9	-6	15	20.5	18.0	2.54	18.0	13.7	4.26
Al Horford	77	80	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.40	-1	4	-5	19.2	18.0	1.19	15.3	22.5	-7.22
Josh Smith	59	58	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.39	-5	8	-13	18.4	21.0	-2.61	14.7	17.7	-2.95
Hilton Armstrong	5	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	4	-5	15.4	19.4	-3.96	14.5	15.7	-1.18
Jason Collins	31	34	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	6	-9	16.4	20.8	-4.35	14.7	16.3	-1.58
Kirk Hinrich	37	40	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.00	-2	5	-7	18.9	19.3	-0.42	14.9	16.2	-1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.78,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.69,0.79,0.85,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 93, CHI 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.87,0.71,0.83,0.69,0.79,0.97,0.98,1	93.7%
CHI 97, POR 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.82,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.84,1	93.6%
DAL 97, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.88,0.68,0.84,0.78,0.9,1	93.4%