NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	89		Excitement	5.8 [669]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +19.8%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	3.7 [866]		LVP	Andre Iguodala (PHI): -14.4%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jrue Holiday	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.11	-0.02	0.01	12	63%	0.08	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Jodie Meeks	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Elton Brand	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.04	0.01	14	59%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Evan Turner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	10	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.04,0,0	-0.02	0.03	0.01	20	45%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.09
Spencer Hawes	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.05	0.13	-0.02	17	56%	0.23	2	-0.03	11	82%	0.05
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	13	50%	0.12	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	100%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	14	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	14	93%	0.04
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	30%	-0.02	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	9	44%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.8	37.6	10.8	29.3	2.6	38.3	144.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +5.9%

MIA +37.6%

MIA +11.3%

PHI -5.3%

MIA +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	16.3	16.6	15.5	102.3	110.2	105.7
season	15.5	16.0		104.6	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.3	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	15.7	18.0	16.1	15.4	16.3
MIA	17.7	14.7	16.6	17.3	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Hawes	24	24	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-6	4	15.4	16.7	-1.25	19.0	15.7	3.26
Lou Williams	40	43	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-9	10	16.9	15.9	1.02	15.5	17.6	-2.16
Tony Battie	2	3	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-4	0	21.0	16.2	4.79	7.3	16.9	-9.58
Evan Turner	17	19	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-3	-2	15.8	16.4	-0.62	13.4	17.5	-4.11
Andres Nocioni	19	18	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	-1	-6	19.0	15.6	3.43	15.6	16.9	-1.30
Marreese Speights	23	24	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-4	0	16.0	16.4	-0.38	15.7	16.9	-1.21
Elton Brand	71	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.36	2	-10	12	16.6	15.2	1.31	17.5	12.9	4.60
Jodie Meeks	50	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-4	0	15.8	17.1	-1.27	17.1	15.9	1.20
Andre Iguodala	66	66	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-6	4	16.1	17.1	-1.08	17.3	14.4	2.91
Thaddeus Young	51	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	-1	-6	16.6	15.9	0.64	16.0	17.4	-1.36
Jrue Holiday	72	72	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.26	-8	0	-8	15.9	18.5	-2.59	16.7	15.9	0.88

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	64	66	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.19	16	-8	24	16.6	16.5	0.13	16.4	16.0	0.42
Chris Bosh	71	72	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-3	14	17.2	14.1	3.14	16.6	15.0	1.60
LeBron James	80	77	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	4	0	16.6	16.9	-0.31	15.8	20.6	-4.83
Mario Chalmers	39	38	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.01	12	-4	16	15.2	17.7	-2.58	17.8	15.1	2.70
James Jones	48	46	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.07	5	3	2	15.8	17.5	-1.67	15.7	17.1	-1.42
Joel Anthony	47	47	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.00	7	1	6	15.6	17.7	-2.09	17.7	14.7	2.91
Mike Bibby	52	52	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.30	-7	15	-22	17.6	15.1	2.50	15.1	18.1	-3.05
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	33	32	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.21	-4	12	-16	18.6	15.4	3.27	15.8	16.6	-0.86
Mike Miller	6	5	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	12	-16	12.3	16.9	-4.57	17.8	16.2	1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.98,0.94,0.85,0.78,0.78,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 84, HOU 86	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.79,0.94,0.92,1	93.0%
CLE 86, IND 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.88,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.93,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,1	92.9%
WAS 110, CHA 123	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.84,0.93,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	92.8%