NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	92		Excitement	4.2 [963]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +12.2%
Orlando Magic	88		Comeback	1.0 [397]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -16.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.12	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12	0.11	0.03	0.02	8	85%	0.22	5	-0.09	10	80%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12	0.11	0.01	-0.00	16	64%	0.14	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Tony Allen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	9	54%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Glen Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	46%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	10	40%	-0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	14	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	6	29%	-0.01	5	-0.11	2	0%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	0.04	2	125%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.07,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.02	18	53%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	0.04	7	56%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	0.06	18	55%	0.02	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	10	27%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16	-0.16	-0.17	-0.02	-0.03	10	41%	-0.04	7	-0.12	12	58%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.3	3.6	28.0	20.5	34.6	4.4	49.2	171.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +33.5%

BOS +12.5%

ORL -5.8%

BOS +9.6%

BOS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	14.4	16.9	15.3	98.9	96.7	106.0
season	15.5	15.4		105.7	110.1
opponent	15.9	15.7		101.9	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.8	15.5	12.8	15.8	14.4
ORL	16.2	16.5	18.5	16.2	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	79	76	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.18	11	-7	18	13.8	18.2	-4.44	17.1	15.9	1.15
Rajon Rondo	88	87	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.35	4	0	4	14.9	6.6	8.29	16.6	23.0	-6.39
Kevin Garnett	67	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	0	4	13.4	17.1	-3.71	17.5	15.3	2.22
Paul Pierce	80	80	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.48	-4	8	-12	14.4	14.9	-0.56	16.9	16.6	0.29
Kendrick Perkins	51	52	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	0	4	12.9	16.3	-3.45	17.3	16.3	1.02
Rasheed Wallace	41	37	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	4	-4	15.5	13.6	1.92	15.9	17.6	-1.73
Tony Allen	32	30	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	4	-4	15.1	14.1	0.95	17.1	16.8	0.36
Glen Davis	26	26	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.18	-1	5	-6	18.8	12.7	6.11	16.5	17.0	-0.49
Michael Finley	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.04	2	2	0	5.0	14.5	-9.54	1.0	17.1	-16.07

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcin Gortat	28	28	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.19	8	-12	20	15.5	17.5	-2.06	14.4	14.4	-0.02
Mickael Pietrus	39	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.11	0	-4	4	16.1	17.5	-1.47	15.6	13.6	2.02
Jason Williams	19	18	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	2	-8	16.8	16.9	-0.06	17.3	13.8	3.52
JJ Redick	34	35	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.36	5	-9	14	17.4	16.6	0.79	15.5	13.8	1.72
Matt Barnes	31	31	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.08	-14	10	-24	17.5	16.6	0.95	13.2	15.1	-1.87
Jameer Nelson	72	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-6	8	16.9	16.8	0.06	13.8	17.3	-3.52
Vince Carter	77	80	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.38	1	-5	6	17.0	16.3	0.71	14.0	16.9	-2.89
Rashard Lewis	82	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.32	-6	2	-8	17.1	15.3	1.73	13.9	19.0	-5.11
Dwight Howard	73	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.25	-10	6	-16	17.1	16.1	0.97	14.9	12.5	2.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.25,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.16,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, CHH 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
BOS 102, CHA 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.01,0,0	95.1%
DET 83, SAS 68	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.13,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.0%